Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi Prediction, Odds for French Open Round 4

No. 19 Frances Tiafoe battled back from being down two sets to one in the third round of the French Open to advance to Round 4 for the second year in a row.

A quarterfinalist in 2025 at Roland Garros, Tiafoe has fared much better at the U.S. Open than any other Grand Slam.

However, he’s favored on Monday against Matteo Arnaldi in Round 4.

Arnaldi is making his second fourth-round appearance at Roland Garros, though the 25-year-old has yet to reach the quarterfinals at a Grand Slam before. He and Tiafoe have matched up twice, going 1-1.

Tiafoe won the bigger matchup – a Round of 128 clash at Wimbledon in 2024 – but Arnaldi did win a match on clay against the American.

Does that benefit him in this French Open battle?

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s path to the fourth round and my prediction for this match.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Frances Tiafoe: -124
Matteo Arnaldi: +102

Total

37.5 (Over -130/Under -115)

Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi How to Watch

Date: Monday, June 1
Time: 10:00 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): truTV/TNT/HBO Max

Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi History and French Open Performance

Frances Tiafoe

Tiafoe has not had an easy road back to the fourth round of the French Open, going to four sets in the first round before back-to-back five-set victories over Hubert Hurkacz and Jaime Faria. In fact, Tiafoe had to win back-to-back sets against Faria to advance.

He did beat Arnaldi at Wimbledon earlier in his career, but Tiafoe has just two quarterfinal appearances in a Grand Slam that isn’t the U.S. Open. So, he’s looking to prove that he can succeed at other events, and the French Open is as wide open as ever for him to get a win in 2026.

Matteo Arnaldi

Arnaldi does have a win against Tiafoe under his belt, beating him at the ATP Masters 1000 Madrid in the Round of 16 back in 2025.

The Italian had a fourth-round appearance in the 2024 French Open, but he has never made a quarterfinal at a Grand Slam.

Arnaldi knocked off No. 29 Tallon Griekspoor, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Raphael Collignon to reach the fourth round. He rallied to win the last two sets against Collignon in Round 3 to advance.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Matteo Arnaldi Prediction and Pick

Tiafoe is favored in this match, but he’s 0-1 against Arnaldi on clay, losing that match in straight sets.

So, with the American struggling through three rounds – he’s gone to five sets in back-to-back matches – I wouldn’t be surprised if we have yet another long match on Monday.

Arnaldi has gone to four sets or more in all three of his matches this year at Roland Garros, playing five sets that went to a tiebreaker.

The OVER in games played has been money for both of these players, with Tiafoe playing 41, 59 and 51 games while Arnaldi has played 44, 42 and 58 games.

In their lone matchup at a Grand Slam (Wimbledon), they went to five sets with Tiafoe winning the last three. I’d expect another marathon match in Monday’s meeting.

Pick: OVER 37.5 Games (-130 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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