Fresno State vs. USC Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 1

USC star quarterback Jayden Maiava made an early Heisman statement in Week 0 against the San Jose State Spartans, tossing two scores while completing 25 of his 29 passes for 286 yards.

USC cruised to a 42-26 win, and it’s looking to keep things rolling against Fresno State in Week 1 on Friday. Lincoln Riley’s squad is already ranked in the top-25, and another commanding win could push it up before the next AP Poll.

Fresno State is beginning its first season in the brand-new look Pac-12, and it’s expected to be in the mix for a winning season. It also will have a new quarterback under center, as head coach Matt Entz named Jayden Mandal as the starter on Monday.

Mandal has dealt with injuries in his collegiate career and has only attempted nine passes (back in 2024). The young quarterback had surgery for an ulnar nerve transposition and also dealt with a UCL tear in his throwing arm, a shoulder cyst and a torn labrum.

Earlier this summer, he shared that he’s fully healthy and ready to go.

"Yeah, 100%," Mandal said. "There's always that fear when you get a surgery: Am I going to come back healthy? Is it going to take a long time? But just trusting God's plan and knowing what he has for me got me through that, and I'm so blessed. I'm back, and I'm 100%."

Even with Mandal under center, Fresno State is facing an uphill battle in Week 1. USC already has a 16-point win (though it did not cover) this season, and it’s heavily favored on Friday night.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Week 1 clash.

Fresno State vs. USC Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Fresno State +22.5 (-112)
USC -22.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Fresno State: +1300
USC: -2800

Total

51.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Fresno State vs. USC How to Watch

Date: Friday, Sept. 4
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
How to Watch (TV): FOX
Fresno State record: 0-0
USC record: 1-0

Fresno State vs. USC Key Player to Watch

Jayden Maiava, Quarterback, USC

Maiava turned the ball over quite a bit in the 2025 season, but if he takes care of it better in 2026, he’ll be in the Heisman hunt for USC.

After a two-score showing against San Jose State, Maiava should need to do a little more with his arm to get the Trojans another win against a Fresno State team that should be in the mix to have a winning record in the Pac-12.

Maiava led the Big Ten in passing yards in 2025 (3,711), and he has a real chance to be picked in the 2027 NFL Draft. The USC star helped the team take a 28-0 first-half lead in Week 0 before eventually taking a seat for Jonas Williams.

Fresno State vs. USC Prediction and Pick

USC’s offense has the potential to be one of the best in the country with Maiava leading the way, and it hung 28 points in the first half and 42 for the game against San Jose State.

Now, Fresno State should be a much tougher opponent, and the Bulldogs’ offense may be able to do some damage after San Jose State dropped 26 points in Week 0.

The OVER hit in the majority of the Trojans’ games last season, and 68 combined points in Week 0 has them pointing in the right direction to repeat that in 2026.

While the late naming of a starting quarterback is little concerning for Fresno State, it had a strong defense last season (fifth in EPA/Play) that should help it avoid a blowout where USC would sit down Maiava and other starters.

I think we could see this game go OVER the total, as USC’s offense is explosive enough to drop 30 points on just about anyone.

Pick: OVER 51.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $150 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google