Guardians’ MLB Playoff Odds (Cleveland Remains in Striking Distance of AL Wild Card Spot)

Breaking down the MLB playoff odds for the Cleveland Guardians in the 2025 season.

The Cleveland Guardians are +220 to make the playoffs this season. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Don’t look now, but the Cleveland Guardians are just a game out of a playoff spot in the American League after winning eight of their last 10 matchups.

The Guardians have taken advantage of a long stretch of under .500 baseball from the New York Yankees (21-29 in their last 50) and a four-game losing streak by the Texas Rangers last week to move into the No. 4 spot in the AL wild card standings.

Cleveland is now just one game back of the Yankees, and it has made up some serious ground on the Detroit Tigers in the division, sitting just 6.5 games back in the AL Central. 

Can Cleveland, which has a negative run differential this season, make the playoffs?

Here’s a look at the latest odds from DraftKings for the Guardians to earn a playoff spot. 

Guardians Playoff Odds

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

• To Make the Playoffs: +220
• To Miss the Playoffs: -260

Based on these odds, the Guardians have an implied probability of 31.25 percent to make the postseason in 2025. FanGraphs is even lower on the Guardians, giving them a 26.5 percent chance to make the playoffs, which is well behind the Yankees (82.8 percent chance). 

Cleveland has the 11th-best ERA in MLB, but it has struggled at the dish all season long, ranking 29th in batting average, 27th in OPS and 26th in runs scored. Cleveland’s recent run has been propelled by series against the last-place Chicago White Sox and last-place Colorado Rockies, although it did sweep the New York Mets as well. 

Still, at +220, Cleveland may be worth a shot in this market since the Yankees have played under .500 ball since June 1. New York is 28-34 since then, and it has slowly let the Rangers and Guardians back into things in the wild card race.

Cleveland also ranks 17th in strength of schedule for the rest of the 2025 season, so it could end up finishing strong. The negative run differential and shaky offense are both concerning, but the Guardians are in a better spot than anyone not currently in a playoff spot at this point in the 2025 season.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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