Heat vs. Bucks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, Jan. 23

Another day, another Jimmy Butler problem for the Miami Heat.

Butler has been suspended for the second time this season, this time for two games after he missed a team flight on Wednesday ahead of tonight’s matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The Miami Heat are planning to suspend Jimmy Butler for two games, sources tell ESPN. Butler missed a team flight Wednesday and had plans to join the Heat tonight. Now Miami is keeping him home from its two-game road trip. pic.twitter.com/eABrZ8yv2k
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) January 22, 2025

The No. 9 seed in the East, the Heat need to find a Butler resolution soon if they want to make the playoffs in the 2024-25 season. On the bright side, the Heat should have guard Tyler Herro (probable) back in action on Thursday after he missed Tuesday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.

Milwaukee – fourth in the East – is favored in this matchup, but the Bucks are coming off a weird scenario after their game in New Orleans on Wednesday was postponed due to inclement weather (snow) in the New Orleans area.

This matchup is part of the NBA’s Rivals Week, as these teams have matched up in the playoffs several teams in the Butler era.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to consider in the prop market, and my prediction for Thursday’s Eastern Conference clash.

Heat vs. Bucks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Heat +7(-112)
Bucks -7 (-108)

Moneyline

Heat: +215
Bucks: -265

Total

224 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Bucks How to Watch

Date: Thursday, Jan. 23
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Fiserv Forum
How to Watch (TV): TNT/truTV/Max
Heat record: 21-21
Bucks record: 24-17

Heat vs. Bucks Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

Tyler Herro – probable
Jimmy Butler – out
Keshad Johnson – questionable
Josh Richardson – out
Dru Smith – out
Isaiah Stevens – available

Bucks Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Heat vs. Bucks Best NBA Prop Bets

Miami Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Bam Adebayo OVER 8.5 Rebounds (+100)

Is this a buy-low spot on Bam? Earlier today, I shared why he’s worth a shot in this market in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points:

Miami Heat big man Bam Adebayo has struggled mightily scoring the ball this season, but he’s still averaging 9.7 rebounds per game entering Thursday’s matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.

The emergence of rookie Kel’el Ware has moved Adebayo to a de-facto four in some lineups, and the Heat big man has at least nine rebounds in 10 of his last 14 games.

The Bucks are actually a decent matchup for Bam, as they rank 20th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game this season. Not only that, but Adebayo has nine or more boards in seven of his nine matchups with Milwaukee since the start of the 2021-22 season. He also has thrived with Ware playing over 30 minutes in each of the last two games, grabbing 10 and 11 boards.

I’ll gladly back the Heat captain at this favorable price tonight.

Milwaukee Bucks Best NBA Prop Bet

Khris Middleton OVER 17.5 Points and Assists (-115)

Middleton is averaging 12.6 points and 5.1 assists per game in the 2024-25 campaign, clearing 17.5 points and assists in four straight games and nine of his last 14. Over that 14-game stretch (since right before Christmas), Middleton is averaging 14.2 points and 4.9 assists per game.

He should thrive against a Pelicans team that ranks 28th in defensive rating and 25th in opponent assists per game this season.

Heat vs. Bucks Prediction and Pick

Over the last 10 games, the Bucks rank sixth in the NBA in net rating, and they enter this matchup on a four-game winning streak.

With the Heat struggling and now suspended Butler again, it’s nearly impossible to bet on them to cover the spread in this one. Not only is Miami 20th in the league in net rating over its last 10 games (many without Butler), but it is also just 6-7 against the spread as a road underdog.

The Heat – even with Herro back – lack the offensive options to compete with the Bucks when they’re clicking, and Milwaukee already has a road win back in November over this Heat squad.

I’ll gladly lay the points here with Miami’s season in disarray.

Pick: Bucks -7 (-108)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.