Heat vs. Knicks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Dec. 21

The Knicks are favored at home on Sunday evening.

New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson is a great prop target on Sunday. / Brad Penner-Imagn Images

The Miami Heat and New York Knicks have already played three times in the 2025-26 season, with the home team winning each matchup.

Now, the Knicks are at home – where they are 13-2 this season – on Sunday evening with a chance to even the season series at two games apiece. New York is favored in this matchup with the Heat down All-Star guard Tyler Herro.

The Knicks are coming off a loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Friday in the second night of a back-to-back. Because the Knicks won the NBA Cup on Tuesday night, Friday’s game was their third in four nights. 

Hopefully for New York, it’s a little more rested on Sunday, as this game promises to be an up-and-down affair with Miami (No. 1 in the NBA in pace) involved. The Heat enter this game at two games over .500, but they are just 3-7 in their last 10 games and have slipped to seventh in the Eastern Conference standings.

Can the Knicks take care of business at home, where they have the best against the spread record in the NBA?

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Eastern Conference showdown. 

Heat vs. Knicks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Heat +7.5 (+100)
• Knicks -7.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Heat: +260
• Knicks: -325

Total

• 236.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Knicks How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Dec. 21
• Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Madison Square Garden
• How to Watch (TV): MSG, FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
• Heat record: 15-13
• Knicks record: 19-8

Heat vs. Knicks Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

• Tyler Herro – out
• Kasparas Jakucionis – available
• Nikola Jovic – out
• Pelle Larsson – out
• Davion Mitchell – questionable
• Norman Powell – available
• Andrew Wiggins – questionable
• Jahmir Young – out
• Terry Rozer – out

Knicks Injury Report

• Landry Shamet – out
• Miles McBride – out

Heat vs. Knicks Best NBA Prop Bets

Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jalen Brunson OVER 27.5 Points (-114)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Brunson could have a big game against Miami: 

Jalen Brunson has put together a few down shooting games since the NBA Cup Championship against the San Antonio Spurs:

• vs. Spurs: 25 points (11-of-27 FG)
• @ Pacers: 25 points (10-of-23 FG)
• vs. 76ers: 22 points (7-of-22 FG)

It hasn’t been a great stretch for the All-NBA guard, but his usage is still alive and well in this potent New York offense.

That sets up well for Brunson on Sunday against the Miami Heat, who have played a ton of high-scoring games because they play at the fastest pace in the NBA. In his lone game against Miami this season, Brunson had 37 points (he missed the other two matchups with an injury), and he’s scored 31 or more points in three of his last five meetings with the Heat.

The Knicks star is averaging 28.4 points per game while shooting 47.7 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3. He’s also taking 21.1 shots per game – the second-most of his NBA career.

I’m buying Brunson in a favorable matchup on Sunday evening. 

Heat vs. Knicks Prediction and Pick

The Knicks are coming off a home loss, but they are still an NBA-best 13-2 against the spread at Madison Square Garden this season, including a 140-132 win over the Heat with Jalen Brunson out of the lineup at the time with an ankle injury.

Now, the Knicks nearly have their full rotation healthy for this matchup, and Miami is down star guard Tyler Herro.

The Heat have slipped a bit on offense in recent weeks, falling all the way to 15th in the league in offensive rating, and they’re just 26th in offensive rating over their last 10 games. 

The Knicks, on the other hand, have the No. 2 offense in the NBA and are No. 3 in offensive rating over their last 10 games.

I’d expect New York’s offense to come out firing after an off day on Saturday, and I’m not sold that Miami can keep up with this Knicks team on the road. The Heat did win a pair of close games over New York at home, but they are just 5-9 on the road this season.

I’ll lay the points with the Knicks in this matchup. 

Pick: Knicks -7.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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