Heat vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 29

The Miami Heat are just 4-6 in their last 10 games and have fallen to the No. 9 seed in the Eastern Conference heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Indiana Pacers.

Miami is heavily favored on the road in this game, as Indy has listed Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard, TJ McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Obi Toppin and others on the injury report.

The Heat need every win they can get to move up into a top-eight seed in the conference, but they’re down star guard Norman Powell (illness) on Sunday.

These teams have split their meetings so far this season, but the Pacers are in a full tank mode as they look to secure the top pick in the 2026 NBA Draft. With the Brooklyn Nets losing 10 games in a row, Indiana doesn't have a major cushion for the worst record in the NBA.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Sunday’s Eastern Conference battle.

Heat vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Heat -9.5 (-112)
Pacers +9.5 (-108)

Moneyline

Heat: -395
Pacers: +310

Total

246.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Pacers How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 29
Time: 5:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Heat record: 39-35
Pacers record: 16-58

Heat vs. Pacers Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

Vladislav Goldin – out
Norman Powell – out
Jaime Jaquez Jr. – available
Nikola Jovic – available
Trevor Keels – out
Terry Rozier – out
Jahmir Young – out
Andrew Wiggins – available

Pacers Injury Report

Johnny Furphy – out
Tyrese Haliburton – out
TJ McConnell – questionable
Andrew Nembhard – questionable
Aaron Nesmith – doubtful
Pascal Siakam – questionable
Jalen Slawson – questionable
Obi Toppin – questionable
Ivica Zubac – out
Jarace Walker – questionable

Heat vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Tyler Herro OVER 3.5 Assists (-157)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I shared why Herro is a worthwhile prop target against Indy:

Miami Heat guard Tyler Herro is averaging 3.9 assists per game this season heading into Sunday’s matchup with the tanking Indiana Pacers.

While Herro’s assists numbers are down from last season, he should have an expanded role on Sunday with Norman Powell (illness) out of the lineup. Herro is averaging 4.5 assists per game in the month of March, clearing this prop in eight of the 11 games that he’s played in.

Indiana was a top-10 team in opponent assists per game for a lot of the season, but it has fallen to 13th overall, ranking 23rd in opponent assists per game over its last 15.

Herro had four dimes in a Jan. 10 loss to the Pacers where Miami scored just 99 points.

Heat vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

I don’t love either side in this matchup – especially with all the players up in the air for Indiana – so I’m going to take the OVER in this game.

Miami scored 146 points in the first meeting between these teams this season, and Indy has at least 116 points in both games against the Heat.

Miami’s playstyle has been very conducive to high-scoring games, as it ranks No. 1 in the league in pace, No. 2 in points per game and No. 22 in opponent points per game.

The Heat and Pacers are both in the bottom 10 in the league in defensive rating over their last 10 games with the Pacers (dead last) posting a defensive rating of 125.4. Indy’s offense may not be very effective if it decides to sit most of its rotation pieces, but I still think these teams could rack up a ton of points in a fast-paced game.

Pick: OVER 246.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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