Heat vs. Pelicans Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Feb. 11

The New Orleans Pelicans have won two games in a row and five of their last 10 to climb out of last place in the Western Conference with the All-Star break approaching.

On Wednesday, the Pels find themselves as home favorites against the Miami Heat, who are coming off a loss to the tanking Utah Jazz on Monday. Miami is still in a top-eight spot in the East, but it has a very small cushion over Charlotte and Atlanta.

The Heat didn’t make a big move at the deadline despite being interested in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and they’re down All-Star guards Norman Powell (back) and Tyler Herro (ribs) in this matchup.

While New Orleans’ playoff hopes are extremely slim, this team has shown some fight over the last few weeks, and it has the third-best home against the spread record in the NBA at 17-10-1.

Can the Pelicans cover on Wednesday night?

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this matchup.

Heat vs. Pelicans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Heat +1.5 (-115)
Pelicans -1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Heat: -105
Pelicans: -115

Total

231.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Heat vs. Pelicans How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Feb. 11
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Smoothie King Center
How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Heat record: 28-27
Pelicans record: 15-40

Heat vs. Pelicans Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

Tyler Herro – out
Norman Powell – out
Pelle Larsson – out
Terry Rozier – out
Andrew Wiggins – questionable
Kasparas Jakucionis – available
Vladislav Goldin – out
Keshad Johnson – out
Jaime Jaquez Jr. – available
Dru Smith – available

Pelicans Injury Report

Trey Alexander – out
Hunter Dickinson – out
Dejounte Murray – out
Micah Peavy – questionable

Heat vs. Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bets

Heat Best NBA Prop Bet

Bam Adebayo OVER 21.5 Points (-108)

Each day, I share my favorite NBA prop bets at SI Betting, and I’m target Bam Adebayo to score big with Norman Powell and Tyler Herro out:

The Miami Heat are extremely short-handed on Wednesday night against the New Orleans Pelicans, as Tyler Herro, Norman Powell and Pelle Larsson are out while Andrew Wiggins is questionable.

That leaves a ton of shots open for Bam Adebayo, who is averaging 21.8 points per game over his last 16 games. During that stretch, the star big man has scored 22 or more points nine times.

The Pelicans are just 27th in the NBA in defensive rating and 23rd in opponent points in the paint per game, making this a pretty solid matchup for Adebayo, who should see his shot usage increase with Herro and Powell out.

Bam has not shot the ball particularly well this season (44.6 percent from the field, 34.2 percent from 3), but his 3-point shot is starting to improve, as he’s knocked down 37.3 percent of his attempts over his last 16 games.

I think he’s worth a look on volume alone in this matchup.

Heat vs. Pelicans Prediction and Pick

The Pelicans are 5-0 against the spread when favored at home this season, but I can’t get to them at this number against Miami.

The Heat are 17-11 against the spread (12-9 as an underdog) on the road, and even though Powell and Herro are out, the Heat still are a play-in caliber team in the East.

The Pelicans are one of the worst teams in the league, and they are a dreadful 3-27 straight up against teams that are .500 or better.

So, they’re winning just 10 percent of their games against those teams. I can’t back them as a favorite in this matchup, even though Miami has slipped with a bad loss to Utah earlier in the week.

This line is mispriced given New Orleans’ struggles against any of the quality teams in the league.

Pick: Heat +1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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