Heat vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, Jan. 6

The Timberwolves are favored at home on Tuesday.

Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards is a great prop target on Tuesday. / Sam Navarro-Imagn Images

For the second time in four days, the Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves face off – this time in Minnesota. 

Anthony Edwards and company have won back-to-back games and are making a serious push for a top-four seed in the Western Conference at 10 games over .500. They knocked off the Heat in Miami earlier this month, winning by 10 points in that matchup.

So, it’s not a surprise that they are favored at home in this matchup.

Miami bounced back from the loss to the Timberwolves to beat the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday, and it appears Tyler Herro (questionable for this game) is closer to a return to action after he was active but did not play on Sunday. 

Miami would love to secure a top-six seed in the East, but it has dealt with a ton of health issues – especially with Herro – early in the 2025-26 season.

Here’s a breakdown of Tuesday’s rematch, including the latest odds, my favorite prop bet and a game prediction. 

Heat vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Heat +5.5 (-105)
• Timberwolves -5.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• Heat: +180
• Timberwolves: -218

Total

• 237.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Heat vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, Jan. 6
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
• Heat record: 20-16
• Timberwolves record: 23-13 

Heat vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Heat Injury Report

• Tyler Herro – questionable
• Bam Adebayo – available
• Jaime Jaquez Jr. – questionable
• Keshad Johnson – probable
• Nikola Jovic – probable
• Norman Powell – available
• Pelle Larsson – available
• Dru Smith – available
• Terry Rozier – out

Timberwolves Injury Report

• Terrence Shannon Jr. – out
• Rocco Zikarsky – out
• Enrique Freeman – out

Heat vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Anthony Edwards OVER 29.5 Points (-122)

In today’s best NBA prop bets for SI Betting, I broke down why Edwards could drop another 30-piece on Miami: 

Edwards has been on a tear as of late, averaging 32.1 points per game over his last 18 games, shooting 53.6 percent from the field and 42.1 percent from 3-point range over that stretch.

The All-NBA guard has pushed his season average to 29.4 points per game, and he’s now taking on the team that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA in Miami.

Edwards dropped 33 points on just 19 shots against the Heat on Saturday, and he’s shooting over 50 percent from the field for the season. 

The Heat rank fourth in the league in defensive rating, but since they play at such a fast pace, they are just 19th in opponent points per game. I think that sets up well for Edwards, who has 30 or more points in three consecutive games. 

Heat vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

These teams combined for 240 points in their meeting on Saturday, and now they head to Minnesota, where the Wolves are 12-6 this season but have struggled against the spread (7-11).

So, I’m looking to the total in this matchup, as the Heat are averaging nearly 120 points per game on the road this season. Miami ranks No. 1 in the league in pace, and it has led to a ton of high-scoring games even though it is No. 4 in defensive rating.

As I mentioned in the Edwards prop, the Heat are 19th in the league in opponent points per game, which sets up well for a Minnesota offense that is now No. 8 in the league.

The Wolves aren’t nearly as much of a tempo team – 17th in pace – but they showed they’re willing to run on Saturday, scoring 125 points while putting up at least 27 points in every quarter. 

The OVER hasn’t been a lock in Miami games since it has had a ton of high totals this season, but with two top-15 offenses facing off, I think 237.5 is an extremely reasonable number on Tuesday night. 

Pick: OVER 237.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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