Houston vs. Duke Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bets for NCAA Tournament Final Four

The odds have shifted towards Duke ahead of this Final Four matchup.

Duke is favored in the Final Four. / Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Both Duke and Houston cruised to the Final Four in San Antonio, winning by double digits in the Elite 8 this past weekend.

Now, these two No. 1 seeds match up in what should be an entertaining Final Four clash, although oddsmakers have the Blue Devils favored by a pretty hefty margin.

After opening with Duke and Cooper Flagg favored by 4.5 points, oddsmakers have moved the Blue Devils to 5.5-point favorites for Saturday’s contest. There’s no doubt that Duke – which has three potential lottery picks on its roster – is a dominant team, but this veteran Houston squad has been in big games before. 

It's also worth noting that this is a rematch of last season’s Sweet 16 when Duke upset the Cougars with a 55-51 win.

Here’s a breakdown of this game, including the latest odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for this Final Four matchup.  

Houston vs. Duke Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Houston +5.5 (-120)
• Duke -5.5 (+100)

Moneyline

• Houston: +220
• Duke: -270

Total

• 135.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Houston vs. Duke How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, April 5
• Time: 8:49 p.m. EST
• Venue: Alamodome (San Antonio)
• How to Watch (TV): CBS
• Houston record: 34-4
• Duke record: 35-3

Houston vs. Duke Best College Basketball Prop Bets

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Houston Best Prop Bet

LJ Cryer 3+ Assists (+115)

While he’s not known for his passing, veteran guard LJ Cryer has done a great job of spreading the wealth in the NCAA Tournament. He’s averaging just 2.0 assists per game for the season, but he has three or more dimes in each NCAA Tournament game, including nine total dimes over his last two outings.

Since he has the ball so much for the Cougars, he’s worth a bet in this market on Saturday. 

Duke Best Prop Bet

Cooper Flagg OVER 7.5 Rebounds (-146)

Cooper Flagg is averaging 7.5 rebounds per game for the season, and he’s picked up nine boards in two of his four NCAA Tournament games. He failed to clear this line in his two other games, but Houston isn’t exactly the best defensive rebounding team, ranking 247th in the country in defensive rebounds per game. 

On the offensive glass, the Cougars are 44th. So, Duke will need Flagg to crash the glass at a high rate on both ends to gain some extra possessions in this matchup. 

Houston vs. Duke Prediction and Pick

Earlier this week, I predicted the the Blue Devils would win and cover in this game, and the latest odds movement has not deterred me from that line of thinking: 

This matchup features two elite defensive teams, as the Cougars are No. 1 in the country in opponent points per game, but I lean with the Blue Devils to reach the final.

When at its peak, Duke is the best team in the country on both ends of the floor, ranking ninth in points per game, seventh in opponent points per game, sixth in field goal percentage and fourth in opponent field goal percentage.

Houston can match things on the defensive end – third in opponent field goal percentage – but it is outside the top 130 in the country in points per game.

On top of that, the Cougars (No. 1 in 3-point percentage) don’t knock down as many 3s per game as the Blue Devils, something that could hold them back – even though they’re very efficient from deep. 

Duke has more top-end talent – led by Flagg – and I value that over the experience of the Cougars. Plus, Duke has a veteran guard in Tyrese Proctor who has been in these spots before, including last season’s upset of the Cougars.

I’ll take the points with Duke, as I think offensively it will eventually overwhelm Houston. 

Pick: Duke -5.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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