Illinois vs. UConn Opening Odds, Preview for March Madness Final Four

A shocking comeback and game-winning heave from the logo has catapulted the UConn Huskies to the Final Four for the third time in four years, upsetting the No. 1 overall seed, the Duke Blue Devils.

UConn will now face No. 3 Illinois in the Final Four with a berth in the National Championship on the line. Meanwhile, two 1-seeds, Arizona and Michigan, will face off on the other side of the bracket.

These two teams have met once already this season, with UConn winning convincingly, 74-61, at Madison Square Garden on November 28.

Let's take a look at the opening odds for this Saturday night showdown.

Illinois vs. UConn Opening Odds for Final Four

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Illinois -2.5 (-102)
UConn +2.5 (-120)

Moneyline

Illinois -132
UConn +110

Total

OVER 139.5 (-110)
UNDER 139.5 (-110)

Illinois is favored at -132, an implied probability of 56.9% of advancing to the National Championship.

Illinois vs. UConn Preview

It's interesting to see that UConn is the underdog, despite winning convincingly already this season. In that game, UConn held Illinois to just 32% from the field and 21% from 3-point range.

Illinois has primarily been a 3-point shooting team, but it's been interesting to see its three-point shot rate drop significantly in the NCAA Tournament. The Fighting Illini had a 3-point shot rate of 49.8% this season, but over their past three games, only 39.5% of their field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc.

It'll be interesting to see if that continues against a UConn team that is 13th in opponent two-point field goal percentage, but 30th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage.

These two teams have a lot of similar numbers. They rank 38th and 39th in effective field goal percentage, but UConn has the advantage on defense, ranking 14th in defensive efficiency compared to Illinois at 69th.

Where Illinois thrives is leading the country in effective possession ratio, caused by strong rebounding and finding ways not to turn the ball over. If they can win the rebounding and turnover battles, they're going to be in a great spot on Saturday night.

Illinois is set at +450 to win the National Championship, while UConn is set at +650 to win it for the third time in four years.

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