Japan vs. Sweden Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Group Stage

Japan has had a strong start to its 2026 World Cup campaign, playing to a draw against the Netherlands and then beating Tunisia in convincing fashion. Now, Japan is tied with the Netherlands for the stop spot in the group, with both teams sporting the same goal differential at +4.

That means if they want to win the group, they likely need to not only beat Sweden on Thursday, but they'll have to beat them by more goals than the Netherlands beats Tunisia by.

Meanwhile, Sweden can lock in their spot in the knockout stage with a draw, or they can improve their standing in the group with a win.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this pivotal Group F matchup.

Japan vs. Sweden Odds and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Moneyline

Japan -117
Sweden +305
Draw +245

Total

OVER 2.5 (-137)
UNDER 2.5 (+107)

Japan vs. Sweden How to Watch

Date: Thursday, June 25
Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Dallas Stadium
How to Watch (TV): Fox/Tele/Peacock
Japan record: 1-1-0
Sweden record: 1-0-1

Japan vs. Sweden history and Tournament Results

These two teams have faced each other four times. Sweden is 2-2-0 in those matches. The most recent match was an international friendly in 2002 which ended in a 1-1 draw.

Japan

Japan played to a 2-2 draw against the Netherlands in its first match of the tournament, and then cruised past Tunisia in it second match, winning 4-0.

Sweden

Sweden crushed Tunisia by a score of 5-1 in its first match, but then lost by the same score to the Netherlands in its second match.

Japan vs. Sweden Best Prop Bet

Ayase Ueda Anytime Goal (+141)

In today's edition of my Best World Cup Goal Scorers Today, I broke down why I'm betting on Ayase Ueda to find the back of the net:

Ayase Ueda of Japan ranks 14th amongst all players competing in this tournament in expected goals, having already accumulated 1.7. He has found the back of the net twice so far, and now he gets to face a Sweden team that has allowed six goals through their first two matches. Japan should get plenty of offensive opportunities in this game, so Ueda is a great bet to score for a third time on Thursday.

Japan vs. Sweden Prediction and Best Bet

I think Japan is the no-brainer side to back. I broke down why in today's edition of my Best World Cup Bets Today:

I'm selling my Sweden stock ahead of this match. The Swedes might've had a big win against Tunisia, but they were exposed against the Netherlands, especially on defense. They have an expected goals against of 1.16, and now they have to face a disciplined Japanese team that has one of the best expected goals against numbers in the tournament at 0.4.

Japan is going to struggle against the elite teams in this tournament, but their style of soccer can expose a lesser team's weaknesses. I'd be surprised if they don't get the win in this match, which is important for both teams.

Pick: Japan -117 via Caesars

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