Knicks vs. Pacers Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for Eastern Conference Finals Game 3

The Pacers are favored to take a 3-0 series lead on Sunday.

The Pacers are favored at home in Game 3. / Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

Can the Indiana Pacers put themselves just one win away from the NBA Finals? 

Indy is favored in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the New York Knicks after taking the first two games of the series in New York. This postseason, the Pacers are 10-2 straight up and 4-1 at home.

The Knicks could be making a major move on Sunday, as SNY’s Ian Begley reported that the team is considering a change to the starting lineup – inserting Mitchell Robinson for Josh Hart.

Hearing the Game 3 lineup change being strongly considered by the Knicks is to move Mitchell Robinson to starting lineup and have Josh Hart come off the bench. My man @CPTheFanchise said earlier that NYK was strongly considering a change ahead of G3. NYK starting lineup is -50 in…

— Ian Begley (@IanBegley) May 25, 2025

Robinson has been an impact player all postseason, posting a plus-41 plus/minus in 14 games. However, the Knick’s best lineups haven’t only come with Robinson on the floor. In fact, New York’s best net-rated lineup (that has seen significant playing time together) features Hart and Karl-Anthony Towns on the bench while Mitchell Robinson and Miles McBride are in their place. 

It’s highly unlikely that the Knicks would bench Towns, but he sat for extended stretches in Game 2. 

A win by the Knicks would set up a huge Game 4, but a win by Indiana all but ends this series. No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit. 

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my game prediction for this Eastern Conference Finals matchup. 

Knicks vs. Pacers Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Knicks +2 (-108)
• Pacers -2 (-112)

Moneyline

• Knicks: +114
• Pacers: -135

Total

• 223.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Knicks vs. Pacers How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, May 25
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Gainbridge Fieldhouse
• How to Watch (TV): TNT
• Series: Indiana leads 2-0

Knicks vs. Pacers Injury Report

Knicks Injury Report

• None to report

Pacers Injury Report

• Isaiah Jackson – out

Knicks vs. Pacers Best NBA Prop Bets

New York Knicks Best NBA Prop Bet

• Josh Hart UNDER 21.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-115)

If the Knicks end up making a lineup change Game 3 – it’s going to hurt Hart’s value. 

The do-it-all wing has seen his numbers take a hit in this series, as he’s averaging just 70 points, 9.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game while attempting nine total shots. 

Hart took a long time to get his first points in Game 2, and I imagine his role shrinks significantly on offense if Robinson is playing with the starting group. Hart finished Game 2 with just 13 points, rebounds and assists, and he’s only cleared this line in three of his last six games as a starter anyway.  

Indiana Pacers Best NBA Prop Bet

• Aaron Nesmith OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-188)

Aaron Nesmith has been lights out from beyond the arc in this series (he’s 10-for-12 overall), and his hot shooting in the fourth quarter of Game 1 brought the Pacers back to earn a win. 

Now, Nesmith is set at just 1.5 3-pointers made in Game 3, a line that is way too low for how efficient he’s been from deep.

In the playoffs, Nesmith is shooting 54.4 percent from 3, hitting at least two shots from deep in nine of his 12 games. This is also a great matchup, as the Knicks were 26th in the NBA in the regular season in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Even though there is some juice to lay with this prop, Nesmith is a great bet on Sunday. 

Knicks vs. Pacers Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Pacers are primed to take a 3-0 series lead on Sunday: 

Starting lineup changes or not, I don’t see the adjustment for the Knicks to win this series – especially if they’re going to continue to let the Pacers get out and run.

Indiana ranks No. 2 in offensive rating and No. 1 in effective field goal percentage this postseason, while the Knicks are No. 7 and No. 10 in those respective categories. So, getting out and playing a track-meet style with the Pacers is not advantageous for New York.

Jalen Brunson has been rolling in this series, but the Knicks have struggled to get consistent production elsewhere throughout the course of a 48-minute game. It also doesn’t help that New York had a defensive rating of over 154 with Towns in the game in Game 2, forcing Tom Thibodeau to go away from him in the fourth quarter.

Meanwhile, the Pacers have shot the lights out in this series and have done a good job mixing and matching bodies with their massive rotation. The Knicks don’t have that luxury.

Unless New York’s defense tightens up in a major way, I don’t see it beating this red-hot Pacers team. Indy has lost just two games all postseason, including just one at home. 

Pick: Pacers Moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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