Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Thursday, March 5

The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets renew their rivalry on Thursday night, and there are major Western Conference playoff implications on the line.

Los Angeles is just one game back in the win column of the Nuggets, meaning it would move ahead of them in the standings with a win. Denver, which won on Monday night against Utah, has struggled a bit since the All-Star break, falling out of the No. 3 spot in the West.

Denver is set as a favorite at home in this matchup, but the Nuggets are just 16-12 at home in the 2025-26 season. Los Angeles won the first meeting between these teams this season by eight points in Denver.

Luka Doncic and the Lakers have won three games in a row and are within striking distance of the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. Can they move ahead of Denver tonight?

Let’s dive into the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this Western Conference showdown.

Lakers vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Lakers +5.5 (-118)
Nuggets -5.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Lakers: +164
Nuggets: -198

Total

240.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Lakers vs. Nuggets How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 5
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video
Lakers record: 37-24
Nuggets record: 38-24

Lakers vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Lakers Injury Report

Maxi Kleber – questionable

Nuggets Injury Report

Aaron Gordon – out
Curtis Jones – out
Peyton Watson – out
Spencer Jones – out
Cameron Johnson – questionable

Lakers vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (-124)

In today’s best NBA props column for SI Betting, I shared why I’m backing Jokic to get his 23rd triple-double of the season:

This season, Jokic has recorded a triple-double in nearly half of his games (22 of 46), and I love his matchup against Deandre Ayton and the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday.

The Lakers are 22nd in the league in defensive rating and are just 21st in opponent assists per game. That’s key since Jokic is almost a lock to grab 10 boards and score 10 points this season.

In 46 games, Jokic has 10 or more points in every game and 10 or more rebounds in 34 games. Recently, he’s fallen short of 10 or more assists in five of seven games, making that a key focus when it comes to this prop.

The three-time league MVP missed the first matchup against the Lakers this season, but he’s averaging 27.4 points, 13.7 rebounds and 8.8 assists in his last 10 games (including playoffs) against L.A.).

I think he’s worth a look at this price since his assists and rebounds props are set at 10.5 and 13.5 respectively on Thursday.

Lakers vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Denver has struggled at home in the 2025-26 season, going 16-12 in 28 games while the Lakers have posted an impressive road record (19-12).

I don’t mind taking the points in this matchup between two teams that have struggled on the defensive end in the 2025-26 season.

Denver is just 18th in defensive rating over its last 15 games, and these teams are No. 10 (Denver) and No. 11 (L.A.) in net rating over that stretch.

The Lakers can be a frustrating team to be on because of their inability to get stops (they nearly blew Tuesday’s game against New Orleans), but they should be able to take advantage of this Nuggets defense with Gordon and Watson out.

I’ll take the points between these rivals, as Denver is just 9-11 against the spread when favored at home.

Pick: Lakers +5.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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