Liberty vs. Fire Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Thursday, May 14

Could Thursday bring more fireworks in Portland?

The Portland Fire won for the first time in franchise history on Tuesday night, shocking the New York Liberty (13.5-point favorites in that game) on a buzzer-beating putback from Sarah Ashlee Barker.

SARAH ASHLEE BARKER WALK OFF GAME WINNER FOR PORTLAND FIRE FIRST WIN IN FRANCHISE HISTORY 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/o5L7l0v9hd
— Shabazz 💫 (@ShowCaseShabazz) May 13, 2026

Listen to that crowd pop! Basketball in Portland is off to a great start, and the Fire are now just 11.5-point underdogs on Thursday night against Breanna Stewart and company. The Liberty have opened the season without Satou Sabally and Sabrina Ionescu, and they are listed as out for this rematch.

New York remains a true title contender this season, but the Fire may be friskier than initially expected, as they made 15 3-pointers in Tuesday’s win. Bridget Carleton and Carla Leite led the way, combining for 47 points.

The Liberty opened the season with a blowout win over Connecticut, but they’ve looked a little vulnerable since, going to overtime against Washington before losing Tuesday’s game as a double-digit favorite.

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this rematch on Thursday night in Portland.

Liberty vs. Fire Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Liberty -11.5 (-110)
Fire +11.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Liberty: -700
Fire: +500

Total

176.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Fire How to Watch

Date: Thursday, May 14
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Moda Center
How to Watch (TV): Prime Video, Liberty Live, WWOR-TV
Liberty record: 2-1
Fire record: 1-1

Liberty vs. Fire Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

Sabrina Ionescu -- out
Satou Sabally -- out
Rebecca Allen -- questionable
Marine Fauthoux -- out

Fire Injury Report

Sug Sutton -- questionable
Karlie Samuelson -- out
Carla Leite -- questionable

Liberty vs. Fire Best WNBA Prop Bet

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Breanna Stewart UNDER 0.5 3-Pointers Made (+155)

Earlier today, I shared in my WNBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m fading Stewie as a 3-point shooter in this matchup:

Even though Breanna Stewart is one of the best scorers in the WNBA, she has not shot the 3-ball well in recent seasons, and that has continued into 2026.

Stewart shot 35.5 percent from 3 in her first season with the Liberty (2023), but since then she’s knocked down just 29.5 percent (2024) and 24.1 percent (2025) of her 3-pointers. Stewie is also averaging just 1.4 3s per game as a member of the Liberty.

To open 2026, Stewart is 1-for-10 from beyond the arc, and she took just two shots from deep in Tuesday’s loss to Portland. So, I don’t expect a big game from her from 3 in the rematch on Thursday.

Stewart hasn’t taken more than four shots from deep in a single game this season, which really lowers her ceiling in this market since she’s shot under 30 percent from deep in back-to-back seasons.

Liberty vs. Fire Prediction and Pick

These teams both came close to breaking 100 points on Tuesday night, and I’m expecting another high-scoring affair in the rematch on Thursday.

New York has combined for 181, 191 and 194 points in three games, ranking No. 3 in the WNBA in offensive rating and No. 1 in effective field goal percentage.

The Fire are fifth in offensive rating and No. 6 in effective field goal percentage, and they hit a ton of 3-pointers in Tuesday night’s win. So, we could see a shooting exhibition again on Thursday.

Portland has given up 98 and 96 points in two games, ranking 14th in the W in defensive rating so far in the 2026 campaign. I wouldn’t be shocked if these squads both find themselves in the 90s on Thursday, especially if the Fire cover the spread for the second game in a row.

Pick: OVER 176.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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