Liberty vs. Sparks Prediction, Odds, Best WNBA Prop Bet for Tuesday, July 28

The New York Liberty are two games out of the top spot in the Eastern Conference heading into their first game post-All-Star break against the Los Angeles Sparks on Tuesday night.

All-Star Game MVP Jonquel Jones and the Liberty are road favorites in this matchup as they look to win a third game in a row after close victories over Dallas and Chicago (both by one point) to close out the first half of the season.

Los Angeles has listed star guard Kelsey Plum as out for this matchup, and it is just 3-11 when she sits in 2026. The Sparks are currently on a five-game skid and have a ton of work to do if they want to contend for a playoff spot this season.

Can the Liberty take advantage of this struggling L.A. team and earn a road win? New York is just 6-9 against the Western Conference in 2026, including a one-point loss to the Sparks back on June 21.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Tuesday night’s showdown.

Liberty vs. Sparks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Liberty -4.5 (-103)
Sparks +4.5 (-117)

Moneyline

Liberty: -177
Sparks: +145

Total

183.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Liberty vs. Sparks How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, July 28
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: crypto.com Arena
How to Watch (TV): Liberty Live, Spectrum Sports Network, WWOR-TV, WNBA League Pass
Liberty record: 15-12
Sparks record: 10-16

Liberty vs. Sparks Injury Reports

Liberty Injury Report

Satou Sabally -- out
Leonie Fiebich -- out
Marine Johannes -- questionable

Sparks Injury Report

Kelsey Plum -- out

Liberty vs. Sparks Best WNBA Prop Bets

Liberty Best WNBA Prop Bet

Breanna Stewart OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-116)

This season, Stewart is averaging 8.6 rebounds per game, and she pulled down double-digit boards in her lone matchup with the Sparks.

Los Angeles has struggled on the glass in 2026, ranking 13th in opponent rebounds per game and 12th in rebound percentage. Since the Sparks are No. 2 in the league in pace, there are a lot of extra possessions during their games.

That sets up well for the Liberty star, as Stewart has nine or more rebounds in 14 of her 26 appearances in 2026.

Liberty vs. Sparks Prediction and Pick

The Sparks are struggling as of late, falling to 2-5 against the spread as home underdogs in the 2026 season.

However, they have a chance to cover against the Liberty, who are awful as road favorites in 2026, covering in just one of nine games.

New York is just seventh in the WNBA in net rating, and it may struggle to put away a Sparks team that loves to play uptempo, high-scoring games. After all, L.A. beat the Liberty in Los Angeles in a game where Plum scored just 12 points on 5-of-14 shooting.

So even with the star guard banged up, I think the Sparks can at least hang around this game. The Liberty have been one of the worst teams in the league against the number when favored, and they’re recent wins over a Paige Bueckers-less Dallas team and a tanking Chicago team don’t inspire a ton of confidence.

With this spread outside a possession, I’ll take the Sparks to cover.

Pick: Sparks +4.5 (-117 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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