Lions, Texans Super Bowl Odds Surprisingly Shift Following David Montgomery Trade

The NFL offseason is in full swing, and there's been a trade between two teams that have Super Bowl aspirations in the 2026 season.

The Detroit Lions have officially broken up the duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, as they are sending Montgomery to the Houston Texans for a fourth-round pick, offensive lineman Juice Scruggs and a seventh-round pick.

Montgomery now heads to Houston where he'll have a chance to be in a lead role alongside second-year back Woody Marks.

Updated compensation :

Texans get: RB David Montgomery.

Lions get: fourth-round pick, OL Juice Scruggs, and a 7th-round pick. https://t.co/fzCWeZMQ0a
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 2, 2026

The move has impacted the Super Bowl odds for next season for both teams. After the Lions opened at +1400 and the Texans opened at +1900 following Super Bowl LX, both teams have seen their odds fall. DraftKings Sportsbook has Houston at +2000 to win Super Bowl LXI while the Lions dropped to +1500. These aren't major moves, but both teams are losing a little ground as the NFL Draft approaches.

It's interesting that Houston's odds dropped, as Montgomery should help fill a major void for the team in the 2026 season. Houston didn't have Joe Mixon (foot) for the entire 2025 season, and it leaned on Marks and Nick Chubb as the primary options in the backfield.

The result? The Texans finished the season averaging 3.9 yards per carry (the fifth-worst mark in the NFL), and they were 30th in EPA/Rush. So, it's pretty clear that Houston needed to upgrade on the offensive line and in the backfield heading into the offseason.

Last season, Montgomery took a clear step back in the Lions' running back rotation, as Gibbs (a former first-round pick) was one of the most dynamic offenisve players in the NFL. Oddsmakers may have bumped the Lions' odds down, but they likely can find a change-of-pace back to complement Gibbs during the offseason.

In the 2025 season, Montgomery played just 37.1 percent of the Lions' offensive snaps, although he did average 4.5 yards per carry. The veteran back finished with 158 carries for 716 yards and eight scores, adding 24 receptions for another 192 yards through the air.

There's a chance Montgomery could be the No. 1 option for Houston on the ground in the 2026 season, but Marks had a strong rookie season and should factor into the mix as well. Houston was a playoff team in the 2025 campaign, but it needs to get C.J. Stroud some more help after he struggled in two playoff games against Pittsburgh and New England.

Both the Lions and Texans remain in the top 12 in the odds to win the Super Bowl in the 2026 season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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