Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 6

Can the Lions pull off a road upset in Week 6?

The Detroit Lions and quarterback Jared Goff are 4-1 against the spread this season. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

A pair of Super Bowl contenders face off on Sunday Night Football in Week 6, as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Detroit Lions, who have won four games in a row. 

Detroit took over the top spot in my weekly NFL Power Rankings, but it is an underdog in Kansas City in Week 6. 

The Lions have won four games in a row and rank in the top five in EPA/Play both on offense and defense, but they are facing a tough environment in Kansas City – and one of the wildest trends in the NFL.

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is an amazing 13-3-1 ATS as an underdog in his NFL career, and he’s looking to add to that with Kansas City sitting at 2-3 in the 2025 season. The Chiefs dropped their game on Monday night against the Jacksonville Jaguars, pushing them to 0-3 this season in one-possession games.

Let’s take a look at the odds, players to watch, betting trends and my prediction for this terrific Sunday night matchup in Week 6. 

Lions vs. Chiefs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

• Lions +1.5 (-115)
• Chiefs -1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Lions: +100
• Chiefs: -120

Total

• 50.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Lions vs. Chiefs How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 12
• Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
• Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): NBC
• Lions record: 4-1
• Chiefs record: 2-3

Lions vs. Chiefs Betting Trends

• The Lions are 4-1 against the spread this season.
• Detroit is 4-0 against the spread in wins in the 2025 campaign.
• The Chiefs are 2-3 against the spread this season.
• Kansas City is 0-3 straight up in one-possession games in 2025. 
• The OVER is 3-2 in the Lions’ five games this season.
• The OVER is 3-2 in the Chiefs’ five games this season.
• The Chiefs are 1-2 against the spread as favorites this season.
• The Lions are 1-1 ATS as underdogs this season. 
• Patrick Mahomes is 13-3-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.

Lions vs. Chiefs Injury Reports

Lions Injury Report

• Khalil Dorsey – out
• Kalif Raymond – questionable
• Zach Cunningham – questionable
• Taylor Decker – questionable
• Terrion Arnold – out
• Sione Vaki – questionable
• Alim McNeil – questionable

Chiefs Injury Report

• Rashee Rice – out (suspension)
• Omarr Norman-Lott – questionable
• Kristian Fulton – questionable

Lions vs. Chiefs Key Players to Watch

Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back, Detroit Lions

This is a terrific matchup for the Lions running game and running back Jahmyr Gibbs, as the Chiefs have allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season – the seventh-most in the NFL.

Gibbs is off to a strong start in the 2025 campaign, rushing for 325 yards and four scores on 70 carries (4.6 yards per carry) while also adding 22 catches for 112 yards and a score through the air.

He and David Montgomery share the backfield duties in Detroit, but it’s clear that Gibbs is the lead back, as he’s played 61.1 percent of the snaps for Detroit in 2025. 

I think this could be a huge game for the Lions on the ground, as the Chiefs are just 29th in the NFL EPA/Rush on defense. 

Lions vs. Chiefs Prediction and Pick

Even though Mahomes has dominated in his career as an underdog, I think the Lions are the team to bet in this matchup.

Detroit has really turned things around after a rough Week 1 loss to the Green Bay Packers, and it ranks fourth in EPA/Play on both offense and defense. The Lions have run for the sixth-most yards in the NFL, and they should end up destroying this Kansas City defense on the ground in Week 6. 

While the Chiefs have won two of their last three games, they have struggled against superior competition, going 0-3 against the Jaguars (4-1), Philadelphia Eagles (4-1) and Los Angeles Chargers (3-2). On top of that, the Chiefs are 0-3 in one-score games, and this spread suggests that they’ll play another close game in Week 6.

Harrison Butker has also struggled for the Chiefs, missing five kicks this season and he made a crucial mistake in Week 5, kicking his final kickoff out of bounds to give the Jaguars great field position on their game-winning drive.

Detroit has covered the spread in every game since Week 1, and the team’s offense is humming at the moment, ranking No. 1 in points scored and seventh in yards per play.

With Rashee Rice still suspended, I’m not sure that Kansas City has the offensive firepower to keep up in this game, especially if it continues to struggle stopping the run.

I’ll take the points with Detroit, as it’s one of my favorite upset targets in Week 6. 

Pick: Lions +1.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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