Live Players Championship Odds, Prediction: Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele Lead Before Round 3

It’s been a good start for the SI Golf betting panel at The Players Championship. Our outright picks lead the field in scoring and odds to win. That opens up an opportunity for the weekend.

Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele and Cameron Young lead the tournament at 12 under par, 10 under and 9 under, respectively. They’re currently +160, +390 and +600, respectively, at FanDuel to win outright.

Brian Kirshner picked Aberg to win pretournament at +2700 at DraftKings. I had Schauffle and Young at +2900 on DK and +5000 at FD before the tournament, as noted in the Players Championship SI Betting panel. SI Betting’s Iain MacMillan bet Aberg +1800 live ahead of the second round.

Justin Thomas (+1300) and Corey Conners (+1600) are just behind them at 8-under par. Sepp Straka (+2000) is at 7 under. Three players are at 6 under and seven more are at -5.

That’s all to say, there’s a long way to go and a lot of players in contention. Having a few outrights near or atop the leaderboard halfway through is great. It doesn’t guarantee anything. (I did hit the first-round lead on Maverick McNealy, a five-way chop, but a nice win regardless, also noted in the panel.)

Personally, I’m not adding any outrights to my list yet. I’ll wait to see what Xander and Young do in Round 3 before making any moves in that market. If one of them surges ahead, I could consider hedging, but we’re nowhere near that now.

One bet I made was Adam Scott +490 on FanDuel to finish in the Top 20. Scott is second in the field in Shots Gained: Approach. But he’s lost over three strokes combined off the tee and putting.

He’s gained over a stroke per round OTT in five tournaments this year and has only lost strokes in one of those five events. In his last two events, he’s gained over a stroke per round on average. I’m betting those numbers come back to the mean.

Scott has won the Players before, though his last Top 20 was in 2019. He’s finished Top 20 in his last two events, including a T11 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week.

He’s currently T42 at even par, which is four strokes away from the current Top 20. If he strings together two rounds in the 60s, he should cash this ticket.

Here’s are the outright odds from FanDuel.

Players Championship Live Odds

Ludvig Åberg +160
Xander Schauffele +390
Cameron Young +650
Justin Thomas +1300
Corey Conners +1500
Sepp Straka +2000
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Jacob Bridgeman +3300
Maverick McNealy +3300
Russell Henley +3500
Viktor Hovland +4000
Matt Fitzpatrick +5000
Michael Thorbjornsen +7000
Lee Hodges +10000
Brian Harman +10000
Justin Rose +10000

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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