Louisville vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

The No. 2 Michigan Wolverines are eyeing a trip to the Elite 8 on Saturday in the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament when they take on the No. 3 Louisville Cardinals.

Louisville was nearly upset by No. 6 Alabama in the Round of 32, winning 69-68 to advance to the Sweet 16. The Cardinals finished second in the ACC in the regular season, but they are just 3-7 against teams that are still alive in the NCAA Tournament with two of those wins coming against North Carolina.

Louisville was 0-3 against Duke, including a loss in the ACC Tournament, which limits its ceiling as a title contender this season.

Meanwhile, Michigan may be the most dangerous No. 2 seed in the country – even though the LSU Tigers have better odds than the Wolverines to win it all. Michigan is the only team that the UConn Huskies played this season that kept the game within 10 points, and the Wolverines lost by just three points to UCLA and three points to Vanderbilt in meetings during the regular season.

So, Michigan has shown that it can compete with the top teams in the country, but can it win against them?

Oddsmakers have the Wolverines set as 4.5-point favorites in this Sweet 16 matchup, so let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Saturday’s game.

Louisville vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Louisville +4.5 (-110)
Michigan -4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Louisville: +154
Michigan: -192

Total

143.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Louisville vs. Michigan How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 28
Time: 12:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Dickies Arena
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Louisville record: 29-7
Michigan record: 27-6

Louisville vs. Michigan Key Player to Watch

Olivia Olson, Guard, Michigan

Sophomore guard Olivia Olson is one of the best players in the country, and she leads the Wolverines in points and rebounds per game this season.

Olson is averaging 19.2 points, 6.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while shooting 47.8 percent from the field and 31.7 percent from 3. She dropped 12 points in an easy first-round win over Holy Cross, but the star guard really showed her scoring ability in the second round against NC State, dropping 27 points on 9-of-19 shooting.

Slowing down Olson will be priority No. 1 for the Cardinals, as Michigan is just 3-4 when she scores less than 15 points this season.

Louisville vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

The Wolverines are the No. 6 team in the country based on Bart Torvik’s latest rankings, as they have the No. 8 adjusted offensive efficiency and the No. 6 adjusted defensive efficiency.

Louisville clocks in at No. 10 in these rankings, posting the seventh-best offense and the No. 26 defense in the land.

Both of these teams rank outside the top-100 in opponent effective field goal percentage, but the Wolverines make up for that on the defensive end by ranking 15th in opponent turnover rate. Louisville is a better 3-point shooting team, but the Cardinals’ close win over Alabama is certainly concerning since Michigan has hung with – and beaten – better teams this season.

I’m also worried about Louisville’s inability to get to the free-throw line (323rd in the country in free-throw rate) against a top-10 Michigan defense.

The Wolverines have two wins by 29-plus points in the NCAA Tournament, and I think they can cover this two-possession spread on Saturday.

Pick: Michigan -4.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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