Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Prediction, Odds, and Best Bets for Champions League Playoff Round

Against all odds, Manchester City and Real Madrid are facing off in the knockout stages of the Champions League once again. This will be the fourth time in European Cup history that two teams have played each other in four consecutive seasons. The previous three times, Real Madrid has come out on top twice, both in rather dramatic fashion. One was in the penalty shootout last year and the other was the historic comeback in the 2022 semi-finals when Madrid scored two goals in the last two minutes at Santiago Bernabeu.

One of the premium fixtures in European soccer is now taking place earlier than usual. Manchester City barely got themselves into the knockout stages with a win over Club Brugge in the final game week, setting up a massive clash against the Spanish giants.

Manchester City is having their worst season in the Pep Guardiola era, sitting in fifth place in the Premier League. They were already eliminated from the League Cup and just lost to Arsenal 5-1. With a PL title out of reach, the Champions League is the only chance for Guardiola to redeem himself. Understandably, City’s primary focus will be on trying to win the Champions League for the rest of this season.

While Real Madrid hasn’t been too impressive this season either, they are in a much better place in La Liga. They benefit from weaker competition with no other title challengers except for Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. They are still the frontrunners in the league but have struggled against good teams. They have already lost to Barcelona and Athletic Bilbao. Combined with their losses to Lille, Milan, and Liverpool in the Champions League, it’s hard to trust Carlo Ancelotti’s side entirely.

That is what makes this clash of titans so fascinating. Neither team has been playing as well as we have grown accustomed to over the years. Yet, one team will advance, giving them a massive motivation boost to help turn their season around. With the first leg coming up on Tuesday in Manchester, followed by the return leg in Madrid a week later, let’s take a look at which team that will be.

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

To Qualify for the Next Round:

Man City: +104
Real Madrid: -128

Moneyline:

Man City: +125
Draw: +270
Real Madrid: +190

Total Goals:

Over 2.5: -210
Under 2.5: +170

Over 3.5: +114
Under 3.5: -138

Both Teams to Score:

Yes: -260
No: +190

Double Chance:

Draw or Real Madrid: -170

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, February 11, 2025
Time: 03:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester, UK
How to Watch (TV): Paramount+, CBS Sports

Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Prediction and Pick

There isn’t a more impressive dominance in the soccer world than Real Madrid’s reign over the Champions League. They have won the competition in six of the last 11 seasons. Even when they are not playing well or struggling domestically, they always find a way to make deep runs in the Champions League. In fact, in the two seasons out of the last four that they didn’t win the competition, they still made it to the semi-finals.

Carlo Ancelotti has a similar dominance as the manager with the most Champions League titles. This gives Real Madrid a massive psychological edge. They have a ton of experience on the biggest stage and have the aura of invincibility on their side.

Manchester City, on the other hand, lacks the same psychological edge and the experience advantage. With Rodri’s absence, Kevin De Bruyne’s decline, and the new transfers, Manchester City has an abundance of players without high-level experience on the big stage. Playmakers like Omar Marmoush and Savinho have a ton of upside but are unproven at this point in their careers. Add in their shaky defense with no holding midfielder and Matheus Nunes as a fullback, and Manchester City doesn’t look as scary as it once was.

Real Madrid also has stylistic advantages over Man City, especially on the road. Ancelotti is very comfortable allowing their opponents to control possession in big games. Guardiola will likely dominate the ball at home and deploy a high defensive line like they almost always do. This leaves exploitable spaces and matchups for the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Jr. The fact that Man City doesn’t have any good individual matchups against either of these players after Kyle Walker’s departure doesn’t bode well for the English side.

Plus, there is a massive physical and athletic advantage that Madrid has over Manchester City, especially in the midfield. Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, and Jude Bellingham will almost certainly dominate City’s soft center. Guardiola’s lack of willingness to sign a physical midfielder in the winter transfer window could potentially prove to be a big mistake in this matchup.

Betting on Real Madrid to qualify to the next round after two legs may be the safer choice here but I am taking a risk and going with Real Madrid to win on the road in the first leg.

Pick: Real Madrid (+190)