Mariano Navone vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction, Odds for Wimbledon First Round

French Open runner-up Flavio Cobolli begins his tournament at Wimbledon on Tuesday, June 30 against 25-year-old Mariano Navone.

This is Navone’s third appearance at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, as he was bounced in the first round in 2024 and the second round in 2025.

As a result, Cobolli is heavily favored to advance to the second round in this tournament for the third year in a row. Cobolli reached the quarterfinals at Wimbledon in 2025, and he’s coming off his best showing at a Grand Slam in his young career.

The Italian had a first-round exit at the Australian Open earlier this year, but his performance at the French Open has thrust him into the conversation to win at All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club, especially with Carlos Alcaraz (wrist) injured.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s history at Wimbledon and my prediction for this first-round match.

Mariano Navone vs. Flavio Cobolli Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Mariano Navone: +300
Flavio Cobolli: -416

Total

36.5 (Over -125/Under -120)

Mariano Navone vs. Flavio Cobolli How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, June 30
Time: 11:00 a.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN/ESPN Unlimited

Mariano Navone vs. Flavio Cobolli History and Performance at Wimbledon

Mariano Navone

Navone doesn’t have a ton of success at Grand Slams in his career, making one second-round appearance at the All England Lawn Tennis and Croquet Club and only five total second-round appearances overall.

So far this year, he was bounced in the first round at the Australian Open and the second round at Roland Garros.

He has faced Cobolli once, losing to him in straight sets at the Croatia Open back in 2024.

Flavio Cobolli

Cobolli only has two appearances in a Grand Slam where he went past the third round, but one of them was last year’s Wimbledon. Cobolli made the quarterfinals in that tournament, and he’s coming off a runner-up finish in the 2026 French Open.

Not only has he beaten Navone before, but Cobolli is off to a strong start in 2026, going 23-14 in 37 matches.

Mariano Navone vs. Flavio Cobolli Prediction and Pick

Cobolli is up to No. 9 in the world, and he’s being priced as one of the top players in this tournament after his impressive showing at Roland Garros.

Since Cobolli has had success at Wimbledon before, I do think it’s reasonable that he’s favored to win this match, though I don’t ever really want to lay a -400 moneyline unless it’s on a player like Alcaraz or Jannik Sinner (and even Sinner has been risky as of late, nearly dropping his first match at Wimbledon).

Instead, I’m going to take Cobolli to cover the set spread (-1.5) on Tuesday morning. The Italian just needs to win 3-0 or 3-1 to make this happen, and I like getting the extra cushion for him to drop a set in this match.

He made relatively quick work of Navone at the Croatia Open in their lone meeting, and Navone doesn’t have a history of going deep in Grand Slams. Still, Cobolli is just 9-8 straight up on grass in his career, so I wouldn't be shocked if he drops one set on Tuesday.

Pick: Cobolli Set Spread -1.5 (-200 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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