Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open First Round

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic match in the first round of the U.S. Open.

Novak Djokovic is favored in the first round of the U.S. Open. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Four-time U.S. Open winner Novak Djokovic begins his path at the 2026 event against Mariano Navone on Sunday night, and there is a real case for the Serbian to win this tournament.

Jannik Sinner is injured and won’t participate in the U.S. Open and Carlos Alcaraz is making his return from an injury after missing both the French Open and Wimbledon. 

Djokovic was the runner-up at the Australian Open earlier this year and made the semifinals at Wimbledon. However, he has not made the U.S. Open final since he won the event back in 2023. 

Navone is making his third U.S. Open appearance in 2026, and he’s yet to make the fourth round at a Grand Slam in his career. Last year, Navone was a first-round exit at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, and he’s a massive underdog in this match with one of the greatest players of all time.

Here’s a look at the odds, each player’s history in the U.S. Open and my prediction for this first-round match. 

Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

• Mariano Navone: +364
• Novak Djokovic: -525

Total

• 35.5 (Over -125/Under -115)

Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic How to Watch

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 30
• Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN

Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic History and U.S. Open Performance

Mariano Navone

Navone has never faced Djokovic before, and he only has 10 career Grand Slam appearances. 

His best-ever finish was in the 2025 French Open when he made the third round, and he’s been a first-round and a second-round exit in two starts at the U.S. Open. 

This year, Navone is 21-19 and he’s only won one Grand Slam match, which came at the French Open. 

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic has been extremely successful in his career at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, winning the U.S. Open four times while reaching the final on 10 occasions. 

After a third-round exit in 2024, Djokovic bounced back last year and made the semifinals. He hasn’t won the event since 2023, but the Serbian remains one of the top players on the men’s side. 

Djokovic is 14-6 so far in 2026, and he’s looking to build on that in his first-ever meeting with Navone. 

Mariano Navone vs. Novak Djokovic Prediction and Pick

Djokovic is a massive favorite in this first-round match, and I’d expect him to advance since he’s never lost before the third round at the U.S. Open.

The Serbian has struggled a bit in some of his Grand Slam matches, winning just one match between the French Open and Wimbledon in straight sets. So, I’d like to get a little more cushion for him to win against Navone.

I don’t mind the set spread (Djokovic -1.5) for the four-time U.S. Open winner, as it allows him the ability to drop one set and still cash this bet.

Navone hasn’t ever made a real run at a Grand Slam, and he has been a first-round exit in three of his last four Grand Slam starts. 

Bettors are going to have to lay some juice in this market to take Djokovic, but it gives him an ability to stumble and recover to win this match – and cash the bet. 

Pick: Djokovic -1.5 Sets (-225 at DraftKings)

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