Marlins vs. Blue Jays Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 27

Wednesday’s Major League Baseball action begins with a rubber match between the Miami Marlins and Toronto Blue Jays, as the Jays look to win a second game in a row and inch closer to .500 in the 2026.

It’s been a slow start to the season for the defending American League champs, but they are favored at home on Wednesday with ace Kevin Gausman (3.23 ERA) set to take the mound.

Miami will counter with a young right-hander in Eury Perez (4.91 ERA), who has been up and down in the 2026 season. The Marlins are in fourth place in the NL East – sitting four games under .500 – but they have a run differential of just minus-12, a sign that they could make a push up the standings.

Miami won the series opener against Toronto 8-2, but it scored just one run in Tuesday’s 8-1 loss. So, who should we bet on in this series finale?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this matinee matchup.

Marlins vs. Blue Jays Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Marlins +1.5 (-163)
Blue Jays -1.5 (+135)

Moneyline

Marlins: +130
Blue Jays: -157

Total

7.5 (Over -113/Under -106)

Marlins vs. Blue Jays Probable Pitchers

Miami: Eury Perez (3-6, 4.91 ERA)
Toronto: Kevin Gausman (4-3, 3.23 ERA)

Marlins vs. Blue Jays How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, May 27
Time: 1:07 p.m. EST
Venue: Rogers Centre
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, Sportsnet, Marlins.TV
Marlins record: 26-30
Blue Jays record: 26-29

Marlins vs. Blue Jays Best MLB Prop Bets

Marlins Best MLB Prop Bet

Eury Perez UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-147)

No team in Major League Baseball strikes out less than the Toronto Blue Jays, as they average just over seven punchouts per game in the 2026 season.

So, I’m fading Perez, who has failed to clear this prop in back-to-back starts and four starts overall, on Wednesday afternoon.

The Marlins righty has 63 strikeouts in 58.2 innings of work, ranking in the 68th percentile in whiff percentage and the 70th percentile in strikeout percentage. However, he’s also in just the second percentile in barrel percentage, which is a good sign for a Toronto team that makes a ton of contact.

The Jays should be able to put the ball in play against Perez, and the Marlins righty only has two starts where he’s worked past the sixth inning. So, he has a pretty low ceiling since he’s averaging just 16 outs recorded per start in 2026.

Marlins vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Miami has one of the best bullpens in Major League Baseball this season (3.27 ERA), but I’m going to take the bullpens almost entirely out of the equation and simply take Toronto to win the first five innings of this game.

Gausman is clearly the better starter in this matchup, as he’s posted a 3.23 ERA, a 2.86 Fielding Independent Pitching and ranks in the 71st percentile in expected ERA (3.30).

The same can’t be said for Perez, who ranks in the 18th percentile in expected ERA (5.10), and has an actual ERA of 4.91 this season. The young right-hander has allowed three or more runs in seven of his 11 starts while Gausman has allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 11 outings.

The Jays are 6-5 when Gausman is on the mound this season, and these teams aren’t very different on offense, as Miami ranks 20th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) while the Jays are 23rd.

I’ll trust the superior starter to get the job done early in this series finale.

Pick: Toronto Blue Jays First 5 Innings Moneyline (-166 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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