Martin Damm Jr. vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction, Odds for U.S. Open First Round

American Frances Tiafoe is the No. 11-ranked player in the 2026 U.S. Open, and he begins the tournament on Monday night against another American in Martin Damm Jr.

This is the second straight year where Damm and Tiafoe have matched up at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, as Tiafoe won last year’s meeting in the Round of 64.

After reaching at least the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open in three straight years, Tiafoe was bounced in the third round in 2025, so he’ll be looking to return to his peak form in 2026.

Meanwhile, Damm is making just the fourth Grand Slam appearance of his career, and is coming off a second-round exit at Wimbledon earlier this year.

Oddsmakers have set Tiafoe as a favorite in this match, but he’s only -382 to advance, a much shorter line than some of the other top-ranked players.

Does that signal that Damm has a chance to pull off an upset?

Let’s take a look at the odds, each player’s history at the U.S. Open and my prediction for Monday’s first-round match.

Martin Damm Jr. vs. Frances Tiafoe Odds and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Martin Damm Jr.: +279
Frances Tiafoe: -382

Total

40.5 (Over -115/Under -130)

Martin Damm Jr. vs. Frances Tiafoe How to Watch

Date: Monday, Aug. 31
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2

Martin Damm Jr. vs. Frances Tiafoe History and U.S. Open Performance

Damm and Tiafoe have met once before at the 2025 U.S. Open. Tiafoe won that match in four sets (6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 7-5).

Martin Damm Jr.

There isn’t a ton of history for Damm at the U.S. Open, but he did make the second round in his debut in 2025. The 22-year-old recently made the Round of 16 at the Winston-Salem Open, but he was also bounced in qualifiers at the Cincinnati Masters.

Damm was able to steal a set off of Tiafoe in their first meeting, so it makes sense that he’s priced around +275 to pull off an upset.

Frances Tiafoe

There’s no doubt that Tiafoe has played the U.S. Open better than any Grand Slam event in his career. He has three quarterfinal appearances and two semifinal appearances at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. He only has two other quarterfinal appearances between the Australian Open, French Open and Wimbledon.

After an earlier exit in 2025, Tiafoe comes into this year’s U.S. Open fresh off an appearance in the final of the Cincinnati Masters.

Martin Damm Jr. vs. Frances Tiafoe Prediction and Pick

Tiafoe’s history at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center is hard to overlook.

The 28-year-old made the quarterfinals – or better – in three years in a row and is coming off a strong showing at the Cincinnati Masters. I think he’s a little undervalued against Damm, who lacks a ton of Grand Slam experience and is just 9-12 in his 21 matches in 2026.

Tiafoe hasn’t had a quarterfinal appearance in a Grand Slam in 2026, but he has at least made the third round in all three to date. I think he’s going to advance in this match, but I would much rather get a lower price than his moneyline.

So, let’s look at the set spread, where Tiafoe is -175 to win 3-0 or 3-1.

There’s certainly a chance that Damm takes a set off of Tiafoe on Monday night – he did it in the 2025 U.S. Open – but I’m going to trust the No. 11-ranked player to win this match in three or four sets. The set spread gives us a little extra cushion while still getting Tiafoe at -175 to advance.

Pick: Tiafoe -1.5 Sets (-175 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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