Mavericks vs. Hornets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for MLK Day (Monday, Jan. 20)

The Dallas Mavericks once again won’t have star guard Luka Doncic when they take on the Charlotte Hornets on Monday afternoon.

Doncic, still out with a calf strain, has not played since Christmas. The Mavs have taken a step back without him, losing seven of their last 10 games to fall to the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference.

Luckily, the Mavs have a “get-right” matchup on Monday, as Charlotte enters this game with just 10 wins on the season. It also is dealing with a major injury, as wing Brandon Miller is out indefinitely with a torn ligament in his wrist.

Charlotte enters this game with a 10-8 against the spread record as a home underdog, but can it hang around against a Dallas team that is expected to contend for a title this season?

Here’s a full breakdown of the odds, players to bet in the prop market and my prediction as the NBA honors Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. on Monday.

Mavericks vs. Hornets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Mavs -6 (-112)
Hornets +6 (-108)

Moneyline

Mavs: -245
Hornets: +200

Total

233.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Mavericks vs. Hornets How to Watch

Date: Monday, Jan. 20
Time: 12:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Spectrum Center
How to Watch (TV): NBA TV
Mavs record: 23-19
Hornets record: 10-28

Mavericks vs. Hornets Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

Luka Doncic – out
Dante Exum – out
Jaden Hardy – out
Dereck Lively II – questionable
Dwight Powell – out

Hornets Injury Report

Brandon Miller – out
Tre Mann – out
Grant Williams – out
Tidjane Salaun – out
KJ Simpson – out

Mavericks vs. Hornets Best NBA Prop Bets

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

Klay Thompson OVER 12.5 Points (-115)

The veteran sharpshooter has struggled this season, but this is a prime bounce-back spot for Thompson against a weak Charlotte defense.

Not only do the Hornets rank 19th in the NBA in defensive rating, but they are 20th in opponent 3-pointers made per game – where Thompson does most of his work.

Since Christmas, Thompson has not played well, but he still has five games with at least 13 points while averaging 11.7 field goal attempts per game. I’ll back him on Monday with his points prop steadily dropping.

Charlotte Hornets Best NBA Prop Bet

Mark Williams OVER 27.5 Points and Rebounds (-115)

One of my favorite props of the day – which I shared in my NBA’s Best Bets column “Peter’s Points” earlier on Monday – is for Charlotte big man Mark Williams:

Charlotte Hornets big man Mark Williams has been on a tear over his last three games, averaging 24.7 points and 16.0 rebounds per game.

With Brandon Miller out of the lineup due to a torn ligament in his wrist, Williams has seen his role on offense expand alongside LaMelo Ball. Williams has taken double-digit shots in three straight games, and now he has a great matchup with Dallas.

The Mavericks are just 19th in the NBA in opponent points in the paint per game (where Williams does most of his work). They are also just 18th in rebounding percentage and 19th in opponent rebounds per game.

With Williams’ minutes increasing now that he’s healthy for the first time in two seasons, the Hornets big man is a must-bet at this number given his recent output.

Mavericks vs. Hornets Prediction and Pick

The Mavs are coming off a win on Friday against the Oklahoma City Thunder (sans Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), but they’ve been a tough team to bet on with Doncic out.

Still, Dallas is the team to back in this matchup given Charlotte’s struggles overall this season. The Hornets are just 24th in the NBA in net rating at home and 28th overall in offensive rating.

With Miller out, the Hornets lack the supporting options scoring the ball around LaMelo Ball, and they don’t defend well enough to get by on that alone on most nights.

Dallas should have a boost with Kyrie Irving in the lineup and Dereck Lively II (questionable) potentially making his return on Monday.

The Mavs come into this game with a positive net rating on the road – the 10th-best mark in the NBA overall.

After picking up a much-needed win over OKC, I’ll back the Mavs to build on that against one of the worst teams in the NBA.

Pick: Mavs -6 (-112)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.