Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, March 25

Cooper Flagg’s Dallas Mavericks have dropped four games in a row as they continue their freefall in the Western Conference, and they’re set as road underdogs on Wednesday night in Denver.

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets still have some work to do in the Western Conference standings, though they come into this matchup as the No. 4 seed, ahead of Minnesota and Houston.

Denver is playing the second night of a back-to-back after winning a close game against the Phoenix Suns on Tuesday, and it should have Peyton Watson (hamstring) in the lineup after he rested on the front end.

Dallas lost in overtime on Monday to a makeshift Golden State team, and it has the No. 26 net rating in the NBA over its last 15 games, posting a 2-13 record during that stretch.

Meanwhile, Denver is healthier than it has been for most of the season, and it would love to land a top-four spot in the West by the end of the regular season to get home court in the first round of the playoffs.

So, should bettors trust Denver on the second night of a back-to-back?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Wednesday’s action.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mavs +12.5 (-115)
Nuggets -12.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Mavs: +525
Nuggets: -750

Total

244.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Mavericks vs. Nuggets How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, March 25
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena
How to Watch (TV): Altitude, FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
Mavs record: 23-49
Nuggets record: 45-28

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

Moussa Cisse – questionable
Daniel Gafford – questionable
Kyrie Irving – out
Dereck Lively II – out
Caleb Martin – out
John Poulakidas – questionable
Tyler Smith – questionable
Brandon Williams – questionable

Nuggets Injury Report

Not submitted yet

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Mavs Best NBA Prop Bet

Cooper Flagg OVER 5.5 Assists (-126)

In today’s best NBA props column, I broke down why Flagg is a great target as a passer against Denver:

Dallas Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg won’t be in the NBA playoffs this season, but he’s really come on in the month of March as a No. 1 creator in this Dallas offense.

Flagg is averaging 19.8 points and 6.8 assists in 11 March games, picking up six or more assists in eight of those games. On top of that, Flagg has recorded at least five dimes in 11 games in a row, giving him an elite floor when it comes to this prop.

The Mavs are taking on Denver on Wednesday, and the Nuggets are coming off a close win over Phoenix on Tuesday. Denver ranks 21st in the league in defensive rating and 19th in opponent assists per game, making this a pretty favorable matchup for Flagg.

In the last game against Denver (that he was able to finish), Flagg had 33 points, nine boards and nine dimes in a one-point win.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

I don’t love either side in this matchup with Denver playing the second night of a back-to-back and Dallas in full tank mode at this point in the season.

However, if the Nuggets play most of their core on the second night of a back-to-back, the OVER could be in play.

Denver is the best OVER team (45-28) in the NBA this season, and it’s the No. 1 scoring offense in the league while ranking 20th in opponent points per game.

While Dallas’ offense isn’t nearly as potent, the Mavs are 25th in the NBA in defensive rating over their last 15 games, showing that they’re prone to giving up a ton of points in the right matchup.

Plus, two of the three meetings between these teams this season have finished with over 250 combined points, including a 131-130 win by Dallas.

I’d wait to bet on this game until Denver releases an injury report, but this could have some major offensive fireworks.

Pick: OVER 244.5 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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