Mavericks vs. Pelicans Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Monday, Dec. 22

Can New Orleans win a fifth game in a row?

New Orleans Pelicans forward Trey Murphy III is a great prop target on Monday. / Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

Both the Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans are starting to turn things around after slow starts to the 2025-26 season, making for an intriguing matchup in New Orleans on Monday night.

The Pelicans have won four games in a row, knocking off Indiana, Houston, Chicago and Portland to climb out of the basement in the Western Conference. Now, the Pelicans are slight favorites at home against a Dallas team that has won six of its last 10 games.

Cooper Flagg and the Mavs are still struggling a bit on offense – ranking in the bottom 10 in the league in offensive rating – but the Mavs are 7-6 in the 13 games that Anthony Davis has appeared in this season.

Davis takes on one of his former teams in this matchup, and the star forward is looking to lead Dallas to at least a play-in spot in a tough Western Conference.

Here’s a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this matchup on Monday night. 

Mavericks vs. Pelicans Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Mavs +1.5 (-115)
• Pelicans -1.5 (-105)

Moneyline

• Mavs: -105
• Pelicans: -115

Total

• 241.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mavericks vs. Pelicans How to Watch

• Date: Monday, Dec. 22
• Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
• Venue: Smoothie King Center
• How to Watch (TV): FanDuel Sports Network (Local)
• Mavs record: 11-18
• Pelicans record: 7-22

Mavericks vs. Pelicans Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

• Cooper Flagg – questionable
• Dante Exum – out
• Kyrie Irving – out
• Dereck Lively II – out
• Max Christie – questionable
• Moussa Cisse – questionable
• Miles Kelly – questionable
• Klay Thompson – questionable

Pelicans Injury Report

• Herb Jones – questionable
• Hunter Dickinson – out
• Trey Alexander – out
• Dejounte Murray – out

Mavericks vs. Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bets

Pelicans Best NBA Prop Bet

• Trey Murphy III OVER 18.5 Points (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Murphy is undervalued against Dallas: 

New Orleans Pelicans star Trey Murphy III may be undervalued against a Dallas Mavericks team that he dropped 25 points against earlier this season.

Murphy is averaging 21.2 points per game this season while shooting 49.9 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from 3-point range. While he only took eight shots in his last game, the Pelicans star is averaging 14.9 shots per game overall.

Dallas is eighth in the NBA in defensive rating this season, but Murphy has scored 19 or more points in seven of his eight games this month (averaging 24.6 points per game) and 19 of his 27 appearances overall.

I think this line is way too low for one of New Orleans’ go-to options scoring the ball this season. 

Mavericks vs. Pelicans Prediction and Pick

The Pelicans have won four games in a row, and they’re now 11-5-1 against the spread at home and an NBA-best 18-10-1 against the spread overall.

That bodes well for their chances against a Dallas team that is still struggling on offense (28th in offensive rating) this season. The Mavs are just 5-6 against the spread and 3-8 straight up on the road this season, and they could be without Klay Thompson and Cooper Flagg (both questionable) in this matchup.

While New Orleans has struggled for most of the season, ranking 27th in net rating, it is 15th in that statistic (+0.0) over its last 10 games.

With Zion Williams, Trey Murphy III and potentially Herb Jones (questionable) all in action on Monday, I think New Orleans is in a great spot to win a fifth straight game. 

Pick: Pelicans Moneyline (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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