Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Season Opener

A pair of Texas teams begin their 2026-27 season on Wednesday night, as the Dallas Mavericks and Cooper Flagg hit the road to take on the Houston Rockets and Kevin Durant.

Houston made the playoffs in the 2025-26 season, but injuries to Durant (in the playoffs) and Fred VanVleet (missed the whole season) doomed any chance of Houston making a deep playoff run.

The Rockets roster doesn’t look totally different, but VanVleet’s return should help an offense that was awful in crunch time and really lacked a point guard presence during the 2025-26 season.

Dallas has a new look in the 2026-27 campaign, as Kyrie Irving is back from a torn ACL and the team has a new coach in Dusty May. Lead executive Masai Ujiri hired May and drafted one of his college players at Michigan – Morez Johnson Jr. – in the lottery to pair with the 2025 No. 1 overall pick in Flagg, who had a terrific first season to win the Rookie of the Year. The Mavs also traded for 2024 No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher in a deal with the Atlanta Hawks in the offseason.

Dallas has play-in tournament hopes this season, but will Irving’s return be enough to push this offense to the next level? It won’t be easy against Amen Thompson, Marcus Smart and a loaded Rockets defense that was sixth in the NBA in defensive rating last season.

Let’s examine the odds, a player prop to bet and my game prediction for this season opener on Wednesday night.

Mavericks vs. Rockets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mavs +8.5 (-105)
Rockets -8.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Mavs: +295
Rockets: -375

Total

230.5 (Over -102/Under -118)

Mavericks vs. Rockets How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, Oct. 21
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Toyota Center
How to Watch (TV): NBA League Pass, KFAA, Space City Network
Mavs record: 0-0
Rockets record: 0-0

Mavericks vs. Rockets Injury Reports

Mavs Injury Report

Santi Aldama – out
Tarik Biberovic – out
Caleb Martin – out
Dereck Lively II – out

Rockets Injury Report

Steven Adams – questionable
Julian Phillips – questionable

Mavericks vs. Rockets Best NBA Prop Bets

Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

Fred VanVleet 5+ Assists (-174)

Fred VanVleet has averaged over five assists per game in each of his last six seasons, and now he gets to play alongside Kevin Durant for the first time in his career.

The Rockets badly needed a point guard in the 2025-26 campaign, and FVV should walk into a major workload after missing last season with a torn ACL. Houston has other capable playmakers, but Alperen Sengun and Durant should benefit from FVV setting up the offense and getting them easy looks.

In his first two seasons in Houston, VanVleet averaged 8.1 and 5.6 assists per game.

Mavericks vs. Rockets Prediction and Pick

The expectations for these teams are very different entering the 2026-27 season, but Dallas has a real chance to take a step forward if it can get all of its young core healthy. Dereck Lively II remains out of the lineup, and the Mavs won’t have Santi Aldama on Wednesday either.

Still, I think they're in play to cover against a Houston team that was an NBA-worst 18-26 against the spread at home in the 2025-26 season.

Irving should immediately raise the offensive ceiling of this Dallas team, and Flagg seems poised to make a leap in Year 2.

I think the Rockets are a clear-cut playoff team in the West, but this may be a few too many points to give them in Game 1 of the season. On Tuesday we saw some sloppy offensive performances, and that would benefit the Mavs as multi-possession dogs in their opener.

Pick: Mavs +8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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