Mercury vs. Aces Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for WNBA Season Opener

The defending champion Las Vegas Aces begin the 2026 season on Saturday afternoon in a rematch of last year’s WNBA Finals against the Phoenix Mercury.

Las Vegas swept that series, and the Mercury lost star forward Satou Sabally to the New York Liberty in free agency this offseason. Still, Phoenix returns stars Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper from last year’s Finals run.

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Meanwhile, the Aces brought back A’ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jewell Lody and Jackie Young, making them one of the favorites to win the title in the 2026 season.

Las Vegas is heavily favored at home in this season opener, and it closed on the 2025 season on a massive winning streak to earn the No. 2 seed in the standings. Can the Aces get off to a hot start in 2026?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Saturday’s matchup.

Mercury vs. Aces Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Mercury +7.5 (-102)
Aces -7.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Mercury: +275
Aces: -345

Total

166.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Mercury vs. Aces How to Watch

Date: Saturday, May 9
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: T-Mobile Arena
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Mercury record: 0-0
Aces record: 0-0

Mercury vs. Aces Injury Reports

Mercury Injury Report

Noemie Brochant – day-to-day
Jovana Nogic – day-to-day

Aces Injury Report

Janiah Barker – day-to-day

Mercury vs. Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

Aces Best WNBA Prop Bet

Jackie Young OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160)

Jackie Young is a career 37.8 percent shooter from beyond the arc, and she averaged 1.8 made 3-pointers last season on just over five attempts per game.

Young shot 35.9 percent from 3 in the 2025 season, but she’s now gone three seasons in a row where she’s averaged over five attempts from deep per game. Playing off of A’ja Wilson has its perks, and Young should get free for a few jumpers in this matchup.

Last season, the Aces guard had 24 regular-season games with at least two 3-pointers.

Mercury vs. Aces Prediction and Pick

The Aces swept the Mercury in the WNBA Finals last season, and Las Vegas returns most of its core from that championship team.

Meanwhile, Satou Sabally left the Mercury in the offseason, leaving a pretty big hole for the team on offense. The Mercury are facing an uphill battle to repeat last season’s success, and it’s worth noting that they were just 5-7-1 against the spread as road underdogs last season.

I’m buying A’ja Wilson and company to start the season with a bang, as Las Vegas showed it could flip a switch and be the best team in the league in the second half of the 2025 campaign.

Now that Jewell Loyd is fully integrated into this team, I think the Aces hit the ground running in 2026.

Pick: Aces -7.5 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's WNBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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