Mexico vs. Ecuador Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for World Cup Round of 32

The marquee World Cup matchup set for Tuesday night is a Round of 32 showdown between Mexico and Ecuador.

Mexico won all three of its group stage matches and has yet to allow a goal in this tournament. As a result, they're set as favorites to advance to the Round of 16, but in this article, I'm going to make the case for betting on Ecuador to pull off the upset.

Mexico vs. Ecuador Odds and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

To Advance

Mexico -188 (65.82% implied probability)
Ecuador +154

Moneyline

Mexico +120
Ecuador +300
Draw +190

Total

OVER 1.5 (-172)
UNDER 1.5 (+140)

Mexico vs. Ecuador How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, June 30
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Estadio Banorte
How to Watch (TV): Fox/Tele/Fox One
Mexico record: 3-0-0
Ecuador record: 1-1-1

Mexico vs. Ecuador History and Tournament Results

These two teams have faced each other 28 times. Mexico is 17-7-4 in those matches. The three most recent matches ended in draws, with the most recent being a 1-1 draw in a 2025 international friendly.

Mexico

Mexico won all three of its group stage matches, beating South Africa 2-0, South Korea 1-0, and Czechia 3-0.

Ecuador

Ecuador lost to the Ivory Coast in its first match of the tournament by a score of 1-0, then played to a surprising 0-0 draw against Curacao. They managed to beat a Germany team that was resting its players in its final match by a score of 2-1 to advance to the knockout stage.

Mexico vs. Ecuador Best Prop Bet

UNDER 8 Corners (-130)

The betting market is expecting this match to be a low-scoring affair, evidenced by the fact that the 90-minute total is set at 1.5. If we want to attack this but don't feel confident enough to bet the UNDER on the game total, consider betting on UNDER 8 corners at -130. If neither team attacks aggressively, there will be few opportunities for corners.

Mexico vs. Ecuador Prediction and Pick

In today's edition of my Best World Cup Bets Today, I wrote about why I'm betting on Ecuador as an underdog to pull off the upset:

Let's remember that Mexico benefited from playing in arguably the weakest group in the World Cup. Wins against the likes of South Korea, Czechia, and South Africa don't do enough to move the needle for me, especially when you consider their subpar expected goals numbers in those matches. Mexico finished the group stage with an expected goal differential of just +0.35 per 90 minutes of play. Now, they face their toughest match yet in Ecuador.

Ecuador finished the group stage with an expected goal differential per 90 minutes of +0.53, while having to play against teams like Germany and the Ivory Coast.

I love Ecuador at plus-money to advance to the Round of 16.

Pick: Ecuador to Advance (+154) via FanDuel

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