Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Thursday, Feb. 26

Thursday's game of the night is a Big Ten showdown between two nationally ranked teams when No. 13 Michigan State hits the road to take on No. 8 Purdue.

Both teams have identical records at 22-5 overall and 12-4 in conference play, so tonight's outcome will have a significant impact on both conference tournament and NCAA tournament seeding.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this marquee matchup.

Michigan State vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Michigan State +7.5 (-110)
Purdue -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Michigan State +300
Purdue -385

Total

OVER 142.5 (-110)
UNDER 142.5 (-110)

Michigan State vs. Purdue How to Watch

Date: Thursday, February 26
Game Time: 8:00 pm ET
Venue: Mackey Arena
How to Watch (TV): Peacock
Michigan State Record: 22-5 (12-4 in Big Ten)
Purdue Record: 22-5 (12-4 in Big Ten)

Michigan State vs. Purdue Betting Trends

Michigan State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games
The OVER is 6-1 in Michigan State's last seven games
Michigan State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. Purdue
Purdue is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
The UNDER is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings between these two teams
Purdue is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as the favorite

Michigan State vs. Purdue Key Player to Watch

Jeremy Fears, G - Michigan State Spartans

If Michigan State is going to pull off the upset tonight, it's going to need Jeremy Fears Jr. to bring his best stuff. He's leading the country in assists per game, averaging 9.2, while also leading the Spartans in points per game (15.0) and steals per game 1.3). He's coming off a rough performance against Ohio State, where he shot just 28.6% from the field, so he has to have a bounce-back performance tonight.

Michigan State vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

In today's edition of Daily Dunk, I wrote about why I'm taking the points with Michigan State:

I'm a bit surprised to see Michigan State as a 7.5-point underdog in this spot. The Spartans have been the far better defensive team so far this season. They rank 20th in the country in defensive efficiency, while Purdue comes in at 87th in that metric.

Don't be too concerned with this being a road game for Michigan State. They've been one of the few teams this season that have better shooting numbers when playing on the road, an improvement of 1.3% in effective field goal percentage.

I also don't think Purdue has the interior defense to stop the Michigan State offensive attack. The Boilermakers rank just 202nd in opponent two-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 52.1% from two-point range.

Pick: Michigan State +7.5 (-110)

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