Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Dodgers-Giants, Tarik Skubal, Phillies-Cubs)

Several afternoon matchups headline Thursday’s MLB action, though not every team will play with several squads traveling ahead of their weekend series.

There are a couple of intriguing matchups tonight, including the series finale of the New York Yankees-Boston Red Sox series, as well as an afternoon showdown between the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs.

When it comes to betting on Major League Baseball, I usually focus hard on pitching matchups where I believe there is a clear edge. On Thursday, I’m eyeing the Los Angeles Dodgers in their series finale with San Francisco, as well as a prop for one of the best pitchers in MLB.

Let’s dive into the odds and analysis behind each of these picks for this nine-game slate.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, April 23

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Philadelphia Phillies-Chicago Cubs No Run First Inning (-115)
Tarik Skubal UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-129)
Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-163) vs. San Francisco Giants

Philadelphia Phillies-Chicago Cubs No Run First Inning (-115)

Two starters that have been lights out in the 2026 season face off in a matinee matchup on Thursday.

Cristopher Sanchez and the Philadelphia Phillies are favored on the road against the Chicago Cubs, who have youngster Edward Cabrera making his fifth start of the season.

Cabrera has a 2.38 ERA in the 2026 campaign, allowing just six runs in over 22 innings of work. He also has not allowed a single run in the opening frame, which is great for today’s NRFI bet.

Sanchez has allowed one first inning run in five starts, posting a 1.59 ERA overall. The lefty has allowed just five runs in over 28 innings of work, and he ranks in the 81st percentile in expected ERA.

Cabrera’s advanced numbers aren’t nearly as good, but both of these teams have hit the NRFI at a high rate in 2026. The Cubs have hit it in 83.33 percent of their games while the Phillies have done so in two thirds of their matchups.

With these two starters on the mound, I expect a quick first inning on Thursday afternoon.

Tarik Skubal UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-129)

Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal is off to a great start in the 2026 season, posting a 2.08 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP through five starts. He’s allowed four or fewer hits in three of his five outings, and he has a favorable matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday.

Milwaukee ranks 20th in MLB in OPS and batting average against left-handed pitching in 2026, and Skubal is the best lefty in MLB.

Skubal had an MLB-best 0.89 WHIP in the 2025 season, and I expect him to turn in a shutdown performance on Thursday afternoon.

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-163) vs. San Francisco Giants

The Los Angeles Dodgers have dropped back-to-back games to the San Francisco Giants, scoring just one run over the first two games of the series.

On Thursday, the Dodgers are set as road favorites with Tyler Glasnow on the mound against Giants ace Logan Webb.

Webb has gotten off to a slow start in the 2026 season, posting a 5.10 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, ranking in the 40th percentile in expected ERA and the 23rd percentile in expected batting average against.

So, can L.A. avoid the sweep?

Glasnow has been the better starter in 2026, posting a 3.24 ERA while ranking in the 85th percentile in expected ERA. The righty has led the Dodgers to a 4-0 record in his starts.

Even though the Giants have kept L.A. in check in this series, it has a far worse offense (26th in OPS compared to the Dodgers’ league-best OPS). I’ll trust L.A.’s bats to get going on Thursday to avoid a sweep.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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