Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Jacob Misiorowski, Padres-Dodgers, Bryce Miller)

Thursday, July 2 features a smaller slate of games in Major League Baseball, but there are a ton of great pitchers taking the mound.

Milwaukee’s Jacob Misiorowski, Cincinnati’s Chase Burns, Seattle’s Bryce Miller, Detroit’s Framber Valdez and Chicago’s Davis Martin are all on the bump, making for some intriguing options in the betting market.

On Thursday, I’m eyeing a pair of player props for two of the best starters in MLB so far this season, as well as a total in the San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers showdown later tonight.

Here’s a breakdown of each of these plays, including the latest odds from the best betting sites.

MLB Best Bets for Thursday, July 2

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Bryce Miller OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-147)
Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 3.5 Hits Allowed (-106)
San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-160)

Bryce Miller OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-147)

Bryce Miller has a terrific matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who are in last place in the AL West and have been one of the most strikeout-prone teams in MLB.

The Angels averaging 9.43 K’s per game in the 2026 season – 28th in MLB – and Miller has been a strikeout machine across eight starts.

The Seattle right-hander has 54 strikeouts in 45.2 innings of work, picking up at least seven K’s in all four of his starts in the month of June. He’s cleared this line five times in the 2026 season, and Miller ranks in the 96th percentile in strikeout percentage.

On top of that, Miller is getting a ton of swings out of the zone, ranking in the 97th percentile in chase percentage and the 78th percentile in whiff percentage.

I think he makes quick work of this Angels team that strikes out on over 24 percent of its plate appearances this season.

Jacob Misiorowski UNDER 3.5 Hits Allowed (-106)

This season, Misiorowski has allowed three or fewer hits in nine of his 16 starts, including seven of his 10 starts since May 1. He has a legit case to win the NL Cy Young, posting a 1.45 ERA while ranking in the 90th percentile or better in a ton of advanced metrics.

Now, he takes on a Cincy offense that is one of the worst in MLB, ranking 29th in batting average, 30th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) and 29th in hits.

Misiorowski has an expected batting average against of just .175 this season, which ranks in the 99th percentile amongst MLB pitchers. He should be able to shut down the Reds, who have scored just seven runs in this series against much lesser pitchers.

San Diego Padres-Los Angeles Dodgers First 5 Innings OVER 4.5 (-160)

The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers are playing their second series in less than 10 days, and we have an interesting pitching matchup to decipher on Thursday night.

Randy Vasquez (4.44 ERA) is on the mound for the Padres in this series opener after he was tagged for eight hits, seven runs and two homers in his last outing against them, going just 3.1 innings. Vasquez has allowed seven runs in back-to-back starts, pushing his expected ERA this season to 7.05, which ranks in the first percentile in MLB.

So, I think he’s going to struggle against a Dodgers offense that is No. 1 in wRC+, batting average and OPS while ranking second in runs scored.

On the other side, Roki Sasaki (4.88 ERA) is on the mound for Los Angeles, and he clocks in with a 4.59 expected ERA this season. The Dodgers right-hander gave up three runs in four innings in a 7-1 loss to San Diego in his last start, so I don’t mind fading him as well in this matchup.

The total in the first five innings is set at 4.5, and I think this could easily go OVER, as neither of these pitchers was able to even get through five innings in the series late last month.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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