Walk-Off Wagers: MLB Best Bets Today (Predictions for Rays-Dodgers, George Kirby, Tigers-Astros on Wednesday)

Looking to bet on some of the Major League Baseball action on Wednesday?

All 30 teams are in action on June 17, and there are a bunch of early afternoon matchups to dive into, including a showdown between the Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers.

Two aces are on the mound in that game, as Shane McClanahan will duel against Shohei Ohtani in the series finale.

I have a bet I like for that game, as well as a player prop for one of tonight’s matchups between the Baltimore Orioles and Seattle Mariners.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds and analysis behind each of today’s MLB best bets!

MLB Best Bets for Wednesday, June 17

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Detroit Tigers-Houston Astros UNDER 8.5 (-117)
Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-185) vs. Tampa Bay Rays
George Kirby OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-161)

Detroit Tigers-Houston Astros UNDER 8.5 (-117)

An interesting pitching matchup is set for the Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros matchup on Wednesday afternoon, as All-Star Casey Mize takes on Houston’s Peter Lambert.

Mize is having another strong season in 2026, posting a 2.27 ERA, allowing two or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts. Meanwhile, Lambert has a 3.47 ERA and has given up three or fewer runs in eight of his 10 appearances in 2026.

Now, both of these teams have bullpen ERAs that are over 4.00, but I still think the UNDER is the play to make on Wednesday.

Detroit is in the bottom 10 in MLB in runs scored this season and ranks just 18th in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), so bettors shouldn’t expect much from it, even once Houston’s bullpen takes over this game.

Lambert ranks in the 76th percentile in expected batting average against, and he has an expected ERA of 3.82, which is right around his actual ERA this season. Mize has been even better, ranking in the 92nd percentile in expected ERA (2.66) and the 87th percentile in expected BAA (.202).

I expect a low-scoring game with these two starters on the mound, and these teams have gone UNDER this number in one of their two meetings so far this week.

Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-185) vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The Los Angeles Dodgers have not been as dominant as you’d expect with Shohei Ohtani on the mound this season, going 6-5 in his 11 starts even though he has a shocking 1.06 ERA.

Ohtani ranks in the 93rd percentile in expected ERA, the 93rd percentile in expected BAA, the 87th percentile in whiff percentage and the 92nd percentile in barrel percentage.

He’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in all of his starts this season, including nine starts with one or fewer earned runs allowed. So, I don’t mind taking a shot on the Dodgers to pull off the sweep on Wednesday after back-to-back one-run wins over Tampa Bay.

Shane McClanahan has been solid for the Rays this season, leading them to an 8-5 record in 13 starts while posting a 3.23 ERA.

However, he’s struggled a bit as of late, allowing exactly four runs in three of his last five outings and his expected ERA has dipped to 3.71 (62nd percentile).

The Rays also have a much worse offense than Los Angeles, ranking 16th in wRC+ while the Dodgers are No. 1 in the league.

I trust Ohtani a little more in this matchup, and it’s worth noting that the Rays are three games under .500 on the road in 2026 while the Dodgers are 24-12 straight up at home.

George Kirby OVER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-161)

Seattle Mariners All-Star right-hander George Kirby has not been great this season when it comes to limiting baserunners, posting a 1.31 WHIP across 14 starts.

Now, he takes on a Baltimore Orioles team that can hit for power (13th in OPS) but it is just 18th in the league in batting average. As a result, oddsmakers have dropped Kirby’s hits prop down to 4.5.

I think that’s way too low on Wednesday night, making the OVER one of my favorite bets for the day.

Kirby has allowed five or more hits in 13 consecutive starts, only failing to clear this line in his season debut. The Mariners right-hander has given up 89 hits in 84.0 innings of work, and it’s worth noting that he allowed an American League-high 181 hits in the 2024 season.

Plus, Kirby’s expected BAA is .253 this season, which ranks in the 36th percentile amongst MLB pitchers. I’m shocked this line has dropped so far since the Mariners star is allowing more than one hit per inning in 2026.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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