MLB Playoff Odds for Every Team Ahead of Trade Deadline (Wild Card Race Will Come Down to the Wire)

With the All-Star Break behind us and the trade deadline looming ahead on Monday, we're starting to flirt with entering the final stretch of the MLB season.

The best of the best have already secured themselves as postseason contenders, but there are still a plethora of teams battling for a spot. The wild card race in both the National League and American League is almost certainly going to come down to the last few games.

Let's dive into the odds for each team to make the postseason as we approach Monday's trade deadline.

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook

American League Playoff Odds

Rays -10000
Yankees -8000
Red Sox -320
Rangers -188
Guardians -162
White Sox -144
Mariners +104
Astros +128
Twins +210
Orioles +390
Tigers +760
Blue Jays +1040
Angels +10000
Royals +10000
Athletics +10000

Three teams from the American League East top the odds list to make the American League playoffs. The Tampa Bay Rays, who are leading the division by 3.5 games, are sitting atop the odds list at -10000, an implied probability of 99.01%. The Yankees are close behind them, surely securing the top wild card berth if they can't catch the Rays for the division title. The Red Sox are seven games back from the Rays, but have a three-game lead on a wild card spot.

The races in the AL Central and the AL West are ugly to say the least, but someone has to win them. The White Sox are leading the AL Central by two games at 57-51, and the Rangers are leading the AL West by half a game at 55-54. There is seemingly one wild card spot available for the best non-winner of those two divisions, unless the Orioles and Blue Jays make a late-season run, which would mean all three wild card spots would be taken up by the same division.

The Blue Jays, just one season after winning the American League Pennant, are set at +1040 to make a late-season run at a playoff spot. While it's still within the realm of possibility, they are 5.5 games back, and six teams stand between them and the final postseason berth.

The Royals, Athletics, and Angels are all effectively eliminated at this point. All three are 10+ games back from a playoff spot.

National League Playoff Odds

Dodgers N/A
Brewers N/A
Braves -10000
Cubs -1300
Phillies -430
Diamondbacks +116
Padres +186
Pirates +290
Marlins +710
Cardinals +710
Nationals +820
Reds +2500
Mets +8000
Rockies +10000
Giants +10000

The National League playoff race is much more straightforward. The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers have such big leads on the rest of the competition that their odds to make the playoffs have been taken off the board. The Braves are soon to join them at 64-45.

Then there's the Chicago Cubs, who, if they can't catch the Brewers atop the NL Central, look like a shoo-in for a wild-card spot, 4.5 games better than any other wild-card team.

Things get interesting when looking at the final two wild card spots. Only 5.5 games separate eight teams between the Diamondbacks and Phillies at 57-52, and the Cincinnati Reds at 51-57. The Padres, Marlins, Pirates, Nationals, and Cardinals all sit between them.

I'm surprised the Phillies are set at -430 to make the postseason, an implied probability of 81.13%. They have the same record as the Diamondbacks and have a large group of teams breathing down their necks. Philadelphia is undoubtedly the most skilled team of the bunch, but they have the eighth most difficult remaining schedule and have little room for error.

The Mets, Rockies, and Giants are the three teams with no hope of making it to the playoffs.

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