Moneyline Picks for Every March Madness Final Four Game (Bet on Underdogs?)

Illinois vs. UConn.

Michigan vs. Arizona.

Four powerhouse teams, including three of the top four teams in KenPom meet in Indianapolis for the Final Four in the 2026 Men’s NCAA Tournament.

Both Final Four matchups have lines inside one possession, though the Michigan Wolverines are the current favorite to win the national championship (they’re -120 favorites against Arizona).

There’s one question everyone wants to know before Saturday’s games tip off: Who is going to win?

Ahead of Saturday’s Final Four action, the SI Betting team of Peter Dewey and Iain MacMillan joined our college basketball experts to make picks for each Final Four game and the eventual national champion.

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Uconn Moneyline Picks

Iain MacMillan – UConn (+108)

There's no denying that Illinois can match any other team in the country offensively, but their defense is going to cost them in this game. The Fighting Illini rank just 69th in the country in defensive efficiency. By comparison, the Huskies 14th in that metric, giving them a huge defensive advantage in this Final Four matchup.

I also have a lot more faith in a team that's led by Dan Hurley, a coach that has delivered two National Championships over the past three seasons and is now back in the Final Four, fresh off a win against the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament.

Let's also not forget that UConn has already dominated Illinois once this season, beating them by a score of 74-61 back on November 28.

There's enough there for me to back the Huskies to win as slight underdogs.

Pat Forde – Illinois (-130)

I believe the first game might be a little more decisive than the second, because I believe Illinois will be able to exploit its size and could have a significant advantage at the foul line. (Preemptive statement to the conspiracy theorists: A foul disparity does not mean the officials are on the take and throwing the game. It might simply mean that one team—Illinois—leads the nation in lowest opponent free throw rate while the other—UConn—is 307th in the same category.) But clearly, counting out UConn would be utterly foolish.

Bryan Fischer – Illinois (-130)

I’m hesitant to pick against the Huskies given their experience on this stage and the fact that Hurley is wringing every last ounce out of a group that limped into the NCAA tournament prior to this remarkable run. I just think that the depth the Illini have in the frontcourt can be a huge factor in slowing down Tarris Reed Jr. and their general length on the perimeter will cause issues in running those offensive sets that can be difficult to prepare for. The Big Ten side will at least get a few extra days to dissect their opponent and can benefit from the familiarity that came with their earlier meeting this season.

Kevin Sweeney – UConn (+108)

The more I’ve sat with Game 1, the more I think UConn may have a slight edge over Illinois. The Illini defense has bowed up well in this tournament, but I’m not sure they can match the physicality of Reed on the inside and could struggle with the Huskies’ wing shooters flying off screens. Reed has also been a behemoth on the glass, which could neutralize a critical edge in the game for Illinois.

Peter Dewey – UConn (+108)

The Huskies have won so many big games under Dan Hurley that it feels like a gift to get them at +108 to win this game. UConn has the No. 9 adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, and it knocked off No. 1 overall seed Duke in the Elite 8 despite trailing by double digits entering the second half.

The Huskies don’t quit, and they’re loaded with experience with players like Alex Karaban, Tarris Reed, Silas Demary Jr. and more.

Illinois has the No. 1 offense in the country, but its defense has hit another level in the NCAA Tournament. Will that remain the same against the complex actions that UConn runs on offense?

UConn has a win over this Illinois team in a neutral site game already this season. I think the Huskies are being undervalued after two impressive wins over Michigan State and Duke last weekend.

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona Moneyline Picks

Iain MacMillan – Arizona (+100)

In a game between the two best teams in college basketball, with a spot in the National Championship on the line, one single weakness shown by either side could end up being the difference. With that in mind, it's important to take a look at the turnover rate for the Michigan Wolverines. Not only do they rank in the bottom half of all teams in turnovers per possession, but they also rank near the bottom in forcing turnovers themselves, leading to them averaging -0.6 extra scoring chances per game

Compare that to the Arizona Wildcats, who do a much better job of creating extra scoring chances, averaging +3.4 per game, which is good for 30th in the country.

In a matchup that's largely splitting hairs, evidenced by the minuscule spread, I'm going to back the side that could end up with a few extra possessions, which could make all the difference when it comes to locking up a berth in the NCAA Tournament final.

Pat Forde – Arizona (+100)

Now that it’s April, I’m sticking with the team I picked at the beginning of the tournament, the Wildcats. In a game that figures to be very even, I’m riding with the team that has a greater ability to rebound its own misses, get to the line and get easy points.

Bryan Fischer – Arizona (+100)

As for the marquee semifinal, I just flipped a coin and landed on Arizona. I think it’s a razor-thin margin between the two best teams this March and probably comes down to the Wildcats simply having a higher floor in any game with their length and versatility. The Wolverines could be off from behind the arc or have Aday Mara get into foul trouble and that could be an era where they would be a little more vulnerable over a squad that was the best team in the sport this year save a one week stretch in league play.

Kevin Sweeney – Arizona (+100)

And in the second game, expect an all-out battle from a physical standpoint. And in the end, I think Arizona is just a bit bigger and tougher than Michigan is. I also trust Arizona PG Jaden Bradley almost absolutely with the ball in his hands late in games and feel good about his ability to close games for the Wildcats if they get in a grinder late.

Peter Dewey – Arizona (+100)

Arizona was my pre-tournament pick to win the national championship, and the reasoning was the team’s insane depth and impressive guard play.

I’m going to stick with the Wildcats in the Final Four, as Brayden Burries and Jaden Bradley give Arizona a clear advantage over Michigan in the backcourt. The Wolverines have dominated so far in the tournament, but Arizona is one of the few teams with the size up front to handle Yaxel Lendeborg and this Michigan offense.

National Champion Betting Picks

Iain MacMillan: Arizona (+180)
Pat Forde: Arizona (+180)
Bryan Fischer: Arizona (+180)
Kevin Sweeney: Arizona (+180)
Peter Dewey: UConn +650

I picked Arizona to win the national championship before the tournament, and the Wildcats probably are the right bet to win it all. However, from a betting perspective, I can’t look past UConn at +650 as a worthwhile bet in the Final Four.

The Huskies continue to answer the call in big games under Dan Hurley, and I actually think UConn should be favored in Saturday’s matchup with Illinois. Arizona and Michigan have been two of the best teams in the country all season long, but there is plenty of experience on this UConn team and the best coach in the country. This +650 price just feels wrong, so I’ll go out on a limb and take the Huskies to win a third national championship in four seasons. – Peter Dewey

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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