Nationals vs. Guardians Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for Wednesday, May 27

The Washington Nationals are on fire right now, winning four straight games heading into Wednesday’s series finale with the AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians.

Washington has outscored Cleveland 16-5 so far in this series, winning Tuesday’s game by a score of 6-3 behind six innings of one-run ball from youngster Cade Cavalli.

The Nationals are underdogs once again on Wednesday, as they’ll send veteran Miles Mikolas (6.17 ERA) to the mound against Cleveland’s Gavin Williams (3.25 ERA).

Williams has led the Guardians to an 8-3 record in his 11 appearances in 2026, but he’s shown some signs of slowing down in May, posting a 4.15 ERA while allowing 31 hits in 26.0 innings of work across four starts.

Can he hold down a Washington offense that has scored more runs than anyone else in MLB this season?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this series finale on Wednesday afternoon.

Nationals vs. Guardians Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Nationals +1.5 (-132)
Guardians -1.5 (+109)

Moneyline

Nationals: +158
Guardians: -193

Total

7.5 (Over -116/Under -104)

Nationals vs. Guardians Probable Pitchers

Washington: Miles Mikolas (1-3, 6.17 ERA)
Cleveland: Gavin Williams (7-3, 3.25 ERA)

Nationals vs. Guardians How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, May 27
Time: 1:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Progressive Field
How to Watch (TV): CLEGuardians.TV/Nationals.TV
Nationals record: 29-27
Guardians record: 32-25

Nationals vs. Guardians Best MLB Prop Bets

Nationals Best MLB Prop Bet

James Wood to Hit a Home Run (+469)

Nationals star James Wood is having a monster 2026 season, hitting .276 with a .964 OPS, 15 home runs, 37 runs batted in and nine stolen bases. On Wednesday afternoon, I’m buying him to hit a home run against Williams, who has struggled to limit the long ball so far in 2026.

The Guardians right-hander has given up nine home runs in 11 appearances, and he ranks in just the sixth percentile amongst MLB pitchers in barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage.

Wood has crushed right-handed pitching this season, posting a .290 batting average with 11 of his 15 home runs. He’s also been on fire in recent weeks, hitting .370 with a 1.070 OPS and three homers over the last two weeks and .400 with a 1.196 OPS over the last week, homering twice in his last seven games.

At +469, Wood is a terrific value bet as the Nationals aim for a sweep on Wednesday afternoon.

Nationals vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

The Nationals have the best run line record in MLB this season, going 36-20 after pulling off back-to-back upset wins over Cleveland to open this series.

Even though the Nationals are underdogs again on Wednesday, I don’t mind taking a shot on them to cover the run line once again, especially since Williams has shown some signs of regression over his last few starts.

On the surface, the Guardians right-hander has solid numbers, but his expected ERA is now 4.14 (43rd percentile) and his expected BAA has risen to .243 (49th percentile). This month, Williams has allowed five or more runs in two starts.

So, taking on a Washington team that is No. 1 in runs scored, No. 4 in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+), No. 4 in OPS and No. 7 in batting average is far from an easy matchup.

On the Washington side, trusting Mikolas is a tough sell given his advanced numbers (15th percentile in expected ERA, 14th percentile in expected BAA), but Washington is 5-6 in his outings and has lost two of those games by just one run.

After allowing 17 runs in his first two outings of 2026, Mikolas has since posted a 4.10 ERA across nine starts.

I’ll take the cushion on the run line with Washington as it looks to win a fifth game in a row.

Pick: Nationals +1.5 (-132 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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