Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for 76ers-Celtics, Tyrese Maxey)

Saturday’s NBA action features the two best words in professional sports: Game 7.

Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers have rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to force Game 7 against the Boston Celtics in the first round, and you already know that I’m betting on this standalone matchup.

Philly has back-to-back wins by double digits to even this series, and it’s now 2-1 when Embiid plays after he missed Games 1 through 3 recovering from an appendectomy.

Boston entered this series as a massive favorite, and it’s been favored in every single game, including Game 7.

The main concern for the C’s has been their 3-point shooting, as Joe Mazzulla’s squad is under 30 percent from deep in all three of its losses and over 41 percent from 3 in the three wins in this series. With Jayson Tatum (calf) exiting Game 6 early, the C’s are going to need more players to step up – including All-NBA wing Jaylen Brown – if they want to avoid the upset.

Philly is looking to complete the 14th comeback from a 3-1 deficit in the history of the NBA, though the odds are heavily in Boston’s favor. Home teams have dominated Game 7s in NBA history, going 115-40 straight up.

So, should bettors trust Boston on Saturday?

I’m here to deliver two bets for the series finale between these Eastern Conference rivals.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 277-237 (-2.06 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1568-1475-27 (+31.09 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Tyrese Maxey OVER 23.5 Points (-120)
UNDER 206.5 (-110)

Tyrese Maxey OVER 23.5 Points (-120)

Tyrese Maxey may be a little undervalued in Game 7 with oddsmakers bracing for a lower-scoring game.

Boston has not had an answer for Maxey in this series, as he’s averaging 26.3 points on 22.2 shots per game, clearing 23.5 points in four of his six matchups. Maxey is shooting 44.4 percent from the field and 41.2 percent from 3, and his shots have remained up even with Embiid back in action.

So, I’m going to take him to score 24 or more points on Saturday after he averaged 28.3 per game in the regular season. Maxey has at least 21 in every game in this series – giving him a solid floor – and he led the NBA in minutes per game during the regular season.

He’s more than capable of playing an expanded role in Game 7, and if Philly shortens the rotation, it’ll only mean more looks for Maxey and Embiid.

UNDER 206.5 (-110)

Taking the OVER on a scoring prop and then betting the UNDER in the game seems counterproductive, but Maxey had 30 points in Game 6 when these teams failed to crack 200 combined points.

So, it’s not impossible for both of these plays to hit.

Historically, Game 7s in the NBA are lower-scoring, and there are a couple of key Philly trends to note ahead of Saturday night’s game.

The Sixers have hit the UNDER in 15 of their 23 games as underdogs of six or more points, and the UNDER has hit 63 percent of the time when Philly is an underdog of any number in the 2025-26 season.

A team has failed to reach the 100-point mark in five of the six games in this series, and the lone game where both teams did so was a 108-100 road win for Boston. So, we’ve seen some lower-scoring games in general in this matchup, even if most have gone OVER 206.5 points.

Boston ranked 30th in the NBA in pace in the regular season, and the Sixers and Celtics have played at the second-slowest pace in the playoffs.

Philly’s pace of play naturally slows down when Embiid is on the floor, as it is much more content in the half court and will run plenty of isolations for the former league MVP against Boston’s bigs.

There is the threat of Boston exploding from beyond the arc in this game, but the C’s have shot under 30 percent from deep in back-to-back games and have fallen to sixth among playoff teams in effective field goal percentage (Philly is 10th).

These teams combined for just 199 points in Game 6, and I wouldn’t be shocked if we see a similar total in Game 7.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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