Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Hawks-Pistons, Naz Reid, Jalen Williams)

The home stretch of the NBA season is upon us, and a massive 12-game slate on Wednesday night brings a ton of intrigue with so many playoff and play-in spots on the line.

There are a few things that I have my eye on for Wednesday’s action, and they’ll help shape how I’m betting on these games:

How does Jayson Tatum fare in a potential NBA Finals preview against OKC?
Does Minnesota have enough to beat Houston with Anthony Edwards out?
Do play-in teams like Golden State, Portland and Philly handle business against inferior opponents?
Can Atlanta stay hot against a Detroit team that is 3-0 since Cade Cunningham went down?

As always, there are a ton of storylines to consider in the NBA, especially with 24 teams in action.

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After a 2-for-3 day that was nearly a sweep in Tuesday’s edition of Peter’s Points, I’m back with five plays for players like Naz Reid, Jalen Williams and more on Wednesday.

Overall, I’m back up over 12 units in the 2025-26 season, but there’s a long way to go with the playoffs still to come. Here’s a full breakdown of each bet for March 25, including the latest odds from the best betting sites.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 222-175 (+12.54 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1513-1412-27 (+45.69 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Naz Reid 12+ Points (-156)
Atlanta Hawks +2.5 (-108) vs. Detroit Pistons
Jalen Williams OVER 12.5 Points (-114)
San Antonio Spurs-Memphis Grizzlies OVER 232.5 (-110)
Dylan Harper 15+ Points (-130)

Naz Reid 12+ Points (-156)

Minnesota Timberwolves forward Naz Reid has missed two of the four games that Anthony Edwards has sat out due to a knee injury, but he returned to play over 25 minutes and scored 11 points (on 4-of-12 shooting) on Sunday against Boston.

Reid is averaging 13.7 points per game this season while shooting 46.7 percent from the field and 37.2 percent from beyond the arc. The former Sixth Man of the Year remains one of the best bench scorers in the league, and he should see a few more touches with Edwards sidelined.

In 12 games without Edwards this season, Reid is averaging 16.4 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.7 assists per game, taking 11.6 shots per night. So, with this prop set at him scoring just 12 points, Reid is a pretty solid value since he’s attempting about that many shots per game when the All-Star guard sits.

Reid has at least 12 points in nine of the 12 games he’s played without Edwards this season, including a 25-point game against this Houston team back on Jan. 16.

Atlanta Hawks +2.5 (-108) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Atlanta Hawks are the hottest team in the NBA right now, winning 13 of their last 14 games to get well over .500 this season. They’re now the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference, and they have a winnable matchup on Wednesday against the Detroit Pistons.

Detroit has won three games in a row without Cade Cunningham, including an impressive win at home against the Los Angeles Lakers on Monday. However, I think this is a sell-high spot on the Pistons, especially since they’re favored in this matchup.

Detroit lacks shot creation with Cunningham sidelined, and the Hawks have done a solid job on the road this season, going 19-16 straight up and 13-9 against the spread as road underdogs.

Over their last 10 games, the Hawks are No. 1 in the NBA in net rating, and they’ve used this hot stretch to improve their ATS record in a big way, as they’ve now covered the spread in 54.2 percent of their games.

The one wrinkle with this bet is that Jalen Johnson (questionable, shoulder) could miss this game. Atlanta is just 4-5 without Johnson this season, but it has won back-to-back games with him out.

Jalen Williams OVER 12.5 Points (-114)

Oklahoma City Thunder star Jalen Williams returned to the lineup on Monday after a lengthy absence due to a hamstring injury, and he looked right at home against a short-handed Philadelphia 76ers team, dropping 18 points in just over 20 minutes.

Williams has a tough matchup against the Boston Celtics on Wednesday, who rank fourth in the NBA in defensive rating this season. However, I think this prop is way too low for the Thunder star, as Williams has scored 13 or more points in 22 of his 27 games this season despite playing most of them on some sort of minutes restriction.

The All-NBA forward took 14 shots in his return to the lineup on Monday, and I expect a similar workload against Boston. Let’s buy low on Williams before the market corrects in the coming weeks.

San Antonio Spurs-Memphis Grizzlies OVER 232.5 (-110)

The San Antonio Spurs are massive favorites on the road on Wednesday against the tanking Memphis Grizzlies, who allowed 147 points in a loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Monday.

Memphis has played games with sky-high totals as of late, even though Ja Morant is out for the season and several other rotation players are sidelined. The reason why? The Grizzlies have combined for 233 or more points in 17 games since Feb. 1 and are now allowing 119.1 points per game (24th in the NBA).

The Spurs are an elite defensive team that should be able to slow down this makeshift Memphis roster, but they also rank fifth in the NBA in offensive rating. San Antonio dropped 126 points in one of the three meetings between these teams this season, and it has scored 132 or more points in three of its last four matchups.

Similar to the Atlanta matchup early in the week, the Grizzlies may not have to do much offensively to push this game OVER the total. Plus, the Spurs are 12-10 to the OVER as road favorites in the 2025-26 season.

Dylan Harper 15+ Points (-130)

Rookie guard Dylan Harper stepped up in a big way earlier this month with Stephon Castle out of the lineup, and he should see an expanded role on Wednesday with De’Aaron Fox sidelined.

The No. 2 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft is averaging 11.5 points per game while shooting 49.5 percent from the field and 31.4 percent from 3-point range this season. While this prop is set well above that season average, Harper has scored 15 or more points in three of his last four games, including a 24-point game against Indiana and a 21-point game against Miami.

Memphis is one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA (23rd in defensive rating), and Harper should play a few more minutes with Fox out. He started and scored 24 points in over 28 minutes of action against the Pacers, and it’s worth noting that Harper is averaging 13.3 points in just 24.0 minutes per game since the All-Star break.

I’m buying the rookie to have a strong showing on Wednesday night.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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