Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Rockets-Nuggets, Evan Mobley)

An exciting six-game NBA slate is set for Wednesday, March 11, as contenders like the New York Knicks, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, Cleveland Cavaliers and others take the floor with several teams playing the second night of a back-to-back:

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Toronto Raptors vs. New Orleans Pelicans
New York Knicks vs. Utah Jazz
Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets
Charlotte Hornets vs. Sacramento Kings
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Houston, Toronto, Charlotte and Minnesota all played on Tuesday, but that’s not stopping us from placing some NBA Best Bet, right?

There are a few player props that I’m eyeing on Wednesday, including a pick for Jalen Brunson, who is facing one of the worst defenses in the league in the Utah Jazz.

Over the last two days, I’ve gone 7-1 in Peter’s Points, including a 4-1 showing on Tuesday night. So, why not keep the hot streak going on Wednesday?

Here’s a breakdown of four bets to place on March 11.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 204-160 (+12.74 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1495-1397-27 (+45.89 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Evan Mobley 15+ Points (-179)
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-142)
Houston Rockets +6.5 (-115) vs. Denver Nuggets
Three-Team Moneyline Parlay (+102)

Evan Mobley 15+ Points (-179)

Cleveland Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley should see an expanded role on offense on Wednesday with Jarrett Allen out, and I’m going to lay a little more juice on this points prop to get him down to 15+ against Orlando’s stingy defense.

This season, Mobley is averaging 19.4 points, 8.9 rebounds and 3.6 assists in 14 games with Allen out of the lineup, scoring at least 15 points in 11 of those matchups. Overall, the All-Star forward is averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting 51.8 percent from the field and 31.2 percent from 3.

While the 3-point shot hasn’t developed for Mobley as much as the Cavs would like, he’s still scored 15 or more points in five straight games and had 13 and 20 points in two games against Orlando earlier this season.

Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-142)

Jalen Brunson may have broken out of a shooting slump in the Knicks’ loss to the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday, knocking down 12 of his 23 shots from the floor on his way to a 28-point game.

Now, the star guard has an easy matchup against the Jazz, who rank 29th in the NBA in defensive rating and dead last in opponent points per game this season.

The Jazz have also really struggled to defend the 3-ball, allowing a league-high 15.4 made 3-pointers per game. Opponents are shooting 37.0 percent from deep against the Jazz – the second-best percentage in the entire league. So, Brunson should be able to get going from downtown in this matchup.

This season, the Villanova product is averaging 2.8 made 3-pointers on a career-high 7.4 attempts per game. Brunson is shooting 37.7 percent from beyond the arc, and he’s taken at least seven shots from beyond the arc in four of his six games this month.

I’m buying him in a must-win game for the Knicks on Wednesday.

Houston Rockets +6.5 (-115) vs. Denver Nuggets

Houston is one of the best teams in the NBA this season as a road underdog, going 6-1 against the spread, and it’s coming off a nice win over Toronto on Tuesday.

The Rockets are just 5-5 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back, but I’m betting on them as sizable underdogs against this Denver team.

The Nuggets are still without Peyton Watson, and they’re just four games over .500 at home, including a shaky 10-12 against the spread record as home favorites.

Over their last 10 games, the Nuggets 15th in net rating, 13th in offensive rating and 19th in defensive rating. The No. 1 offense in the league for basically the entire season, Denver is going to struggle when it falls back into the middle of the pack on that end of the floor.

Meanwhile, the Rockets are sixth in the league in defensive rating this season and have been decent over their last 10 games (11th in net rating at +4.6).

Both of Denver’s wins over Houston this season came by just three points, including one that was in overtime. I think that makes the Rockets a must bet at this number on Wednesday.

Three-Team Moneyline Parlay (+102)

Charlotte Hornets Moneyline
New York Knicks Moneyline
Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline

I’m closing the night with a three-team parlay, that is really a bet on the Cavs to beat the Magic that I wanted to get to plus money. Let’s dive in.

Charlotte Hornets Moneyline

The Charlotte Hornets picked up a two-point road win over the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday, and they’re a must bet to sweep this back-to-back.

Charlotte is the No. 3 team in the NBA in net rating over its last 15 games (+9.1), and it has the No. 2 offensive rating in the league during that stretch.

As long as the Hornets’ offense keeps humming, they should have no problem beating the Kings, who have the worst record in the Western Conference and are 29th in the league in net rating. Sacramento is in the bottom five in the league in both offensive and defensive rating and has already ruled out veterans like Domantas Sabonis, Zach LaVine and De’Andre Hunter for the rest of the season.

The Kings have won two games in a row, but this is a perfect sell-high spot, as they’re just 14-19 against the spread at home in the 2025-26 season.

The Hornets are also elite on the second night of a back-to-back this season, covering in an NBA-best 11 of their 13 games.

New York Knicks Moneyline

The New York Knicks are in a must-win spot on Wednesday against the Utah Jazz after dropping back-to-back games in Los Angeles to the Clippers and Lakers.

New York has struggled against the spread on the road all season long, but I think it can at least win this game.

The Jazz are in full tank mode, losing eight of their last 10 games despite an unexpected win over Golden State on Monday. The Warriors had a makeshift team for that game, and Utah even sat Keyonte George down the stretch in an attempt to lose.

With Lauri Markkanen out of the lineup, the Jazz are just 3-20 straight up, so the Knicks should be able to make quick work of them in this matchup.

For as up and down as New York’s season has been, it has dominated lesser teams, going 17-6 straight up against squads that are under .500. In addition to that, the Knicks have the eighth-best net rating and the No. 2 defensive rating over their last 15 games.

How about Utah? Well, it ranks 18th in net rating, 18th in defensive rating and 19th in offensive rating during that stretch and has the No. 29 defensive rating for the entire season.

I simply can’t trust the Jazz against quality teams because they’ve made it clear that they want to lose at this point in the season.

Cleveland Cavaliers Moneyline

Cleveland is favored on the road against Orlando, which is down both Franz Wagner and Anthony Black. That puts the Magic in a precarious position, as they are just 16-22 straight up against teams that are .500 or better and only three games over .500 without Wagner this season.

The Cavs have a worse net rating than Orlando over their last 10 games, but Cleveland had wins by 14 and 16 over this Magic team back in late January. Now with Harden in the fold, the Cavs are an even more dangerous offensive team, which should spell trouble for a short-handed Magic squad.

Orlando ranks 17th in offensive rating and 25th in effective field goal percentage this season while the Cavs are sixth and seventh in those two categories. On top of that, the Magic are just 2-3 against the spread as home underdogs and 13-17 against the spread at home overall.

I don’t mind betting on Cleveland to win this game, especially since the betting market has vaulted them into the No. 2 spot in the odds in the East since the deadline.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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