Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jayson Tatum, Brandon Miller, Raptors-Rockets)

Two marquee matchups highlight an 11-game NBA slate on Tuesday night, giving bettors and fans plenty to look forward to as the playoffs inch closer and closer.

While a lot of the basketball world turns its focus to the conference tournaments and the madness that’s ensuing in the college basketball landscape, the NBA is an exciting time as well.

About a month remains in the regular season, and there are a ton of playoff races still at stake, including the No. 1 seed in each conference. Both the Boston Celtics (No. 2 in the East) and San Antonio Spurs (No. 2 in the West) are in the mix for a No. 1 seed, and they’ll go head-to-head on Tuesday on NBC.

Then, later in the night, a massive Western Conference battle takes place between the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves, who are both in the mix for the No. 3 seed in the West.

Fresh off of a sweep on Monday night (3-0), I’m eyeing several plays for tonight’s action, including bets for Jayson Tatum, Brandon and the Toronto Raptors-Houston Rockets matchup.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the odds and my analysis for each of these picks on March 10.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 200-159 (+10.49 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1491-1396-27 (+43.64 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Jayson Tatum OVER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-124)
Miami Heat -15.5 (-110) vs. Washington Wizards
Toronto Raptors +5.5 (-115) vs. Houston Rockets
Brandon Miller OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-151)
Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-115) vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Jayson Tatum OVER 30.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-124)

Even though he’s only played in two games this season, Tatum has already shown signs that he’s his usual self just 10 months removed from a ruptured Achilles.

The Boston Celtics star had 15 points, 12 rebounds and seven dimes in his season debut against Dallas, and he followed that up with 20 points, three rebounds and two assists in a win over Cleveland.

So, I don’t mind taking him to clear his points, rebounds and assists prop in a marquee matchup with the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday.

Tatum has taken 16 shots in both of his games, including 17 total attempts from beyond the arc. He hasn’t been terribly efficient (12-for-32 from the field, 5-for-17 from 3), but that’ll change as he gets more and more comfortable being back on the floor. It’s a positive sign that he took seven free throws on Sunday against Cleveland, as it shows he’s willing to attack the basket despite just returning from a major injury.

In addition to that, Tatum has played 27 minutes in both of his games, establishing himself in a pretty sizable role right away. The C’s star had 34 points, rebounds and assists against Dallas, and he has a pretty discernible floor in this prop if he continues to hover around 16 shots per game.

Miami Heat -15.5 (-110) vs. Washington Wizards

The Miami Heat are rolling at the moment, winning five games in a row and eight of their last 10 to put some pressure on the Toronto Raptors for the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference.

On Tuesday, the Heat are massive favorites at home, where they are 21-11 straight up this season. Miami is taking on the Washington Wizards, who have lost eight games in a row and are in full tank mode.

Over their last 10 games, the Wizards have a net rating of -10.3 while Miami is fourth in the league at +11.1. The Heat also have a top-five defensive rating in the 2025-26 season.

There are a few trends that support a Heat blowout, starting with Washington's recent games. It has losses to New Orleans (by 20), Utah (by 10), Orlando (by 17), Houston (by five), Toronto (by nine), Atlanta (by 30 and by 21) and Charlotte (by 17) during this losing streak.

The Wizards are also an NBA-worst 10-20 against the spread when set as road underdogs this season.

The Heat are hitting their stride at the right time, and they already have a 31-point win over this Washington team (in Washington, D.C.) earlier this season. I’ll lay this massive number with Miami on Tuesday night.

Toronto Raptors +5.5 (-115) vs. Houston Rockets

The Toronto Raptors are one of the better teams in the NBA as road dogs this season, going 10-6 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets are just 11-17 against the spread when favored at home.

So, should we back the Raptors as two-possession dogs on Tuesday?

I’m buying Scottie Barnes and company in this game, especially since Toronto has a better record on the road (19-11) than at home (17-16). The Rockets have struggled in their crunch time offense this season, going 2-8 in games decided by three points or less. Houston is also just 19th in offensive rating in “clutch games,” which are defined by games within five points in the final five minutes.

Over their last 10 games, the Raptors have a slightly better net rating than the Rockets, although Toronto is six games under .500 against teams that are .500 or better this season. Still, we don’t need them to win this game to simply cover on Tuesday.

Houston has the fourth-worst ATS record as a home favorite in the 2025-26 campaign, covering just 39.3 percent of the time.

Brandon Miller OVER 4.5 Rebounds (-151)

Charlotte Hornets wing Brandon Miller may be undervalued on the boards against the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday.

This season, Miller is averaging 5.0 rebounds per game, but he’s stepped things up in that department since Feb. 1. In 15 games, Miller is averaging 6.1 rebounds per game, clearing 4.5 boards in 10 of those matchups.

He’s also picked up at least five boards in seven straight games, averaging 8.0 boards per game in March.

Portland is 12th in the league in opponent rebounds per game, but I think this is a solid price for Miller to simply hit his season average on Tuesday.

Phoenix Suns Moneyline (-115) vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo back in the lineup, the Milwaukee Bucks are struggling to stay afloat in the Eastern Conference, sitting four games back of the No. 10 seed.

Milwaukee was blown out without Giannis on Sunday by the Orlando Magic, and it’s just 16-17 in the 33 games that he’s played in this season. So, I think the Bucks are an easy fade candidate at home against the Phoenix Suns, who are 1.5-point favorites in this matchup.

Phoenix has won two games in a row and is just 1.5 games out of the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. The Suns have dominated teams that are under .500 (which the Bucks are) this season, going 20-4 straight up.

While Phoenix has been much better at home than on the road, I can’t look past the difference between these teams on the defensive end of the floor. The Suns are 10th in the league in defensive rating this season while the Bucks are 24th.

Milwaukee’s net rating goes in the tank when Giannis is on the bench, and he’s remained on a minutes restriction since returning from his second calf injury of the season.

I think this is a massive discount for the Suns, who look like a clear playoff team in the 2025-26 season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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