Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Brunson, Stephon Castle, Spurs vs. Knicks)

Game 4 of the NBA Finals has massive potential to swing the series odds and set up either the New York Knicks or San Antonio Spurs in a great spot to win the title.

Let me explain.

The Knicks have a 2-1 series lead and are -190 favorites to win this series ahead of Game 4, with oddsmakers setting them as 2.5-point favorites after losing Game 3 at home. With a win, New York would take a 3-1 series lead, and would likely become a major favorite to close out this series. Only one team – the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers – has come back from a 3-1 deficit in the NBA Finals.

On the other side, the Spurs have a chance to even the series before heading home for Game 5. San Antonio is +160 to win the Finals after taking Game 3, but it entered the series as a -210 favorite. So, if the Spurs tie things up at two games apiece before heading home, they’ll likely flip all the way back to favorites to win this series.

Either way, one of these teams is going to shift the odds a ton after Game 4.

So, how should bettors approach it?

The Spurs won Game 3 behind big games from Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, and they turned the Knicks over 13 times. New York’s offense stagnated for the first time in a while this postseason, and that helped end a 13-game playoff winning streak.

In Game 4, I’m targeting two star guards in the prop market, and I have a pick for one of these teams to cover the spread. Here’s a full breakdown of each pick – and the latest odds – in today’s Peter’s Points.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 324-291 (-11.03 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1615-1527-27 (+22.12 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Stephon Castle 20+ Points and Rebounds (-176)
Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+113)
San Antonio Spurs +2.5 (-115) vs. New York Knicks

Stephon Castle 20+ Points and Rebounds (-176)

Stephon Castle had his best game of the Finals in Game 3, scoring 23 points on 8-of-14 shooting, hitting two clutch free throws and a massive 3-pointer down the stretch to clinch the win for San Antonio.

In this series, Castle has taken 14 or more shots in every game, averaging 18.0 points, 5.7 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game. He’s cleared 20+ points and rebounds in two of the three games in this series and 15 of his 21 games in the 2026 postseason.

Overall, the second-year guard is averaging 19.0 points and 5.0 rebounds per game in the playoffs. The Knicks have limited Castle as a passer, so I’d much rather take this combo prop than his entire points, rebounds and assists line.

Castle was aggressive in Game 3 getting downhill, and he took a series-high six free throws in the process. As long as the usage for the former UConn star remains the same, this line is a little low in Game 3.

Jalen Brunson OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (+113)

Jalen Brunson has not shot the ball well in the NBA Finals, knocking down just 37.0 percent of his shots from the field and 31.8 percent of his 3s. He’s seen his 3-point percentage dip since the start of the Eastern Conference Finals, but the star guard still has knocked down 34.5 percent of his 3s in the playoffs.

I’m buying Brunson in the 3-point market after he was 3-for-5 from deep in Game 3. The star guard took 17 3-pointers over the first two games of this series, and he’s taken 25 or more shots in every game.

The usage is going to be there for the All-NBA guard, and Brunson shot just under 37 percent from 3 in the regular season. If he’s going to push eight or nine attempts from beyond the arc, he’s really hard to pass up in this market, especially since the Spurs are insisting on doubling him and meeting him with bodies in the paint.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Brunson leaned more on his jump shot in Game 4, especially since he finally found a rhythm from 3 on Monday.

San Antonio Spurs +2.5 (-115) vs. New York Knicks

This series has seen the road team win all three games, and every game has been close in the final minutes.

The Knicks did win Game 1 by 10 points, but the other two games came down to the final possessions, which I believe sets up well for the Spurs getting 2.5 points on Wednesday night.

Like it or not, San Antonio has taken 17 more free throws than the Knicks in this series and got to the line 24 times in the second half to the Knicks eight. Since Wembanyama walls off so much of the paint for New York, it’s been harder for this offense to get easy baskets at the rim, and the Spurs did a solid job of making Brunson dribble the air of the ball – and into double teams – in Game 3.

I expect the Knicks to have an answer for some of this in Game 3, but Landry Shamet, Karl-Anthony Towns and Mikal Bridges all no-showed on offense on Monday, which is a bit of a concerning sign for a Knicks team that can’t become too reliant on Brunson.

The Spurs’ defense was a top-three unit in the regular season and is the No. 2 unit in these playoffs, and it’s been able to play pretty physically with New York.

The Knicks have some awesome splits at home this season (30-10 in the regular season, 6-2 in the playoffs), but it wouldn’t shock me if this game came down to the final minutes once again. Having the 2.5-point cushion is extremely helpful, especially since there were chances for New York to swing Game 3 even after falling behind by eight with less than five minutes left.

I don’t have a great feel for who will win Game 4, but I do think there is value in getting 2.5 points, especially with the Spurs coming off their best game of the series.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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