Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Jalen Johnson, Nuggets-Warriors, Julius Randle)

Sunday brings in a massive 11-game NBA slate to follow up the United States’ gold medal win in men’s hockey in the Winter Olympics.

The action begins with a nationally televised game between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder and it finishes with the Los Angeles Clippers hosting the Orlando Magic at 9 p.m. EST.

After going 2-2 with my picks in the first night out of the All-Star break, I’m looking at four more bets on Sunday, including a pair of player props.

This season, I’m pushing +12 units in Peter’s Points (my daily NBA Best Bets column), but there are still a lot of games to go to finish this season profitable.

Let’s dive into the breakdowns for each bet on Feb. 22!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 176-139 (+11.69 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1467-1376-27 (+44.85 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver Nuggets -6.5 (-105) vs. Golden State Warriors
Jalen Johnson OVER 18.5 Rebounds and Assists (-134)
Three-Team Parlay (-154)
Julius Randle 8+ Rebounds (-150)

Denver Nuggets -6.5 (-105) vs. Golden State Warriors

The Golden State Warriors have dropped back-to-back games and simply have not been good enough with Steph Curry (knee) out of the lineup.

Golden State has won just six of the 17 games that he’s missed, averaging 104.4 points per game in those matchups.

That’s not going to cut it against a Denver team that has thrived on the road this season, going 21-10 straight up while posting a 12-9 against the spread record as a road favorite. The Nuggets have also posted an average scoring margin of +9.0 points when favored on the road.

The Denver offense – No. 1 in the league in offensive rating – is going to be too much for the Warriors to keep up with. The Nuggets average 120.9 points per game, the most in the NBA, while Golden State has scored over 120 points in just one game that Curry has missed this season.

I’m buying Denver to win this game by a wide margin on Sunday.

Jalen Johnson OVER 18.5 Rebounds and Assists (-134)

Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson is averaging 10.7 rebounds and 8.2 assists per game this season, and he’s taking on a Brooklyn Nets team that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NBA in defensive rating and opponent assists per game this season.

I love this prop for Johnson on Sunday, as he’s averaging 12.5 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game in six games this month, clearing this line in four of them and seven of his last 10 games overall.

Johnson has stuffed the stat sheet all season long, and he’s averaging a whopping 16.8 rebound chances and 14.8 potential assists per game this season. That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop.

Three-Team Parlay (-154)

Charlotte Hornets Moneyline
New York Knicks Moneyline
Boston Celtics +10.5

Charlotte Hornets Moneyline

The Charlotte Hornets have dropped back-to-back games to fall to the No. 10 seed in the Eastern Conference, but they are in a prime bounce-back spot on Sunday against the tanking Washington Wizards.

Anthony Davis, Trae Young and Alex Sarr are all out for Washington while Kyshawn George is listed as questionable.

So, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Wizards struggle at home, where they are just 12-13 against the spread as underdogs.

Even with their last two losses, the Hornets still rank seventh in the NBA in net rating in their last 15 games (+8.0), and they’re 4-3 against the spread as road favorites, posting an average scoring margin of +11.4 points in those games.

Charlotte is a great bet to at least win on Sunday evening.

New York Knicks Moneyline

Fresh off of a win over the Houston Rockets on Saturday night where they erased an 18-point fourth quarter deficit, the New York Knicks have a much easier matchup on the road on Sunday against the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago is in full tank mode after executing several deadline deals, as it’s lost eight games in a row and nine of its last 10.

The Knicks are 19-6 against teams that are under .500 this season, and while they’re just 6-11 against the spread as road favorites, I think they’re in a great spot to win this game.

New York is third in the league in offensive rating, and the Bulls are just 27th in defensive rating over their last 10 games, posting the worst net rating (-14.0) in the league during that stretch.

Chicago is clearly trying to land a better pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, and the Knicks need a win on Sunday to keep themselves in the hunt for the No. 2 seed in the East. There is a clear motivation factor that favors New York in this contest.

Boston Celtics +10.5

For the sake of this parlay, I’m moving Boston from a small favorite to a 10.5-point dog on Sunday, as I think they’ll keep things close in a marquee matchup with the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Celtics are 18-10 on the road this season, and their offense (No. 2 in the NBA) should torch a Lakers team that is just 24th in the league in defensive rating this season.

Los Angeles is 14-12 against the spread at home this season, but it’s posted an average scoring margin of just +1.4 in those games. The Lakers have dominated clutch games (games within five points in the final five minutes), going 16-3 this season. However, I don’t see them pulling away from this Boston team that is 18-10 against the spread on the road – the No. 3 mark in the NBA.

The C’s are 8-2 in their last 10 games, and they should make things tough on a Lakers team that needs its offense to play at an elite level to win against the best teams in the NBA.

Julius Randle 8+ Rebounds (-150)

Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert is suspended for Sunday’s game after picking up another flagrant foul on Friday night, and that sets up Julius Randle to have a major role on the glass.

In two games without Gobert this season, Randle has eight and 10 rebounds, and overall he’s averaging 6.9 rebounds on 12.2 rebound chances per game.

Randle and Naz Reid should both handle major workloads, but I’m backing Randle against the Philadelphia 76ers, who are just 21st in the NBA in rebound percentage this season.

The three-time All-Star has eight or more boards in four of his seven games already this month.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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