Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Nikola Jokic, Alperen Sengun, Celtics, Hornets)

At long last, the NBA is back!

The All-Star break is officially behind us, as the league returns with a 10-game slate on Thursday night, including a some intriguing matchups between playoff-caliber teams:

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers
Houstock Rockets at Charlotte Hornets
Boston Celtics at Golden State Warriors
Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs

I have made some picks for a few of these matchups, including prop plays for All-Star big men Nikola Jokic and Alperen Sengun.

After a strong start to the season with my NBA picks and a few wins over the All-Star break (thank you Damian Lillard), I’m up over 11 units in the 2025-26 season.

There are a ton of future bets that I made before the season that have yet to play out, as well as a ton of playoff action ahead. But first, the goal is to finish the regular season strong on the road to 600 bets.

Here’s a look at four plays for the action on Thursday, Feb. 19.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 174-137 (+11.77 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1465-1374-27 (+44.93 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Alperen Sengun OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-133)
Toronto Raptors -5.5 (-108) vs. Chicago Bulls
Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (-101)
Charlotte Hornets-Boston Celtics Parlay (+100)

Alperen Sengun OVER 8.5 Rebounds (-133)

Thursday’s matchup with the Hornets could be a big game on the glass for Sengun, who is averaging 9.4 rebounds on 17.0 rebound chances per game this season. The Rockets center has at least nine boards in nine of his last 10 games, and this has suddenly become an intriguing matchup for him on the glass.

With Hornets center Moussa Diabaté suspended, they are down their best rebounder and aren’t nearly as dangerous as they’ve been this season in the paint. Charlotte is second to Houston in rebound percentage this season, but Sengun grabbed nine boards in less than 28 minutes in his last matchup with the Hornets (with Diabaté playing).

The Rockets big man has 28 games with at least nine rebounds this season, so I’ll trust him to take advantage of this short-handed frontcourt on Thursday.

Toronto Raptors -5.5 (-108) vs. Chicago Bulls

The Chicago Bulls have lost six games in a row and blew up their team at the trade deadline, making them extremely tough to trust in the coming months.

During their six-game losing streak, the Bulls have not kept a single game within six points, and I don’t see that happening on Thursday night against the No. 5-seeded Toronto Raptors.

Chicago has suffered some awful losses in the month of February:

Feb. 1: 43-point road loss to Miami
Feb. 3: 16-point road loss to Milwaukee
Feb. 5: 16-point road loss to Toronto
Feb. 7: 16-point home loss to Denver
Feb. 9: 8-point road loss to Brooklyn
Feb. 11: 19-point road loss to Boston

Meanwhile, the Raptors made quick work of the Bulls right around the deadline earlier this month, and Toronto has a clear identity (sixth in defensive rating) this season. While Toronto is just 5-6 against the spread as a road favorite, the Bulls have a lot of new pieces trying to find their footing since the deadline.

That has led to a net rating of -20.6 in their six games in February – the worst mark in the NBA during that stretch.

Toronto is a playoff team, and it should roll against the Bulls on Thursday night.

Nikola Jokic to Record a Triple-Double (-101)

The three-time league MVP went into the All-Star break by recording three consecutive triple-doubles, and now he gets to take on a Clippers team that traded Ivica Zubac at the deadline.

That should make things much easier for Jokic on the glass, and the Nuggets star has put up some crazy numbers (in limited minutes in some of his games) since returning from a knee injury.

Jokic is averaging 24.4 points, 13.0 rebounds and 9.4 assists per game while shooting 50.9 percent from the field and in the seven games he’s appeared in since his knee injury.

He’s already recorded 20 triple-doubles, and I think this price is a steal given the fact that the Nuggets star is averaging a triple-double (28.7 points, 12.3 rebounds, 10.7 assists) in the 2025-26 season.

Charlotte Hornets-Boston Celtics Parlay (+100)

Charlotte Hornets +10.5 (-288)
Boston Celtics Moneyline (-205)

Charlotte Hornets +10.5 (-288)

The Hornets are 4.5-point underdogs at home against the Rockets on Thursday, but I’ve opted to move this line six points for this parlay with Charlotte down Diabate and Miles Bridges due to suspension.

The Hornets already have a 10-point road win over the Rockets this month, and I think they’re worth a look at home dogs in this matchup, given how well they’ve played over the last month.

Charlotte is 10-8 against the spread as a home underdog this season, and over the last 15 games it has a significantly better net rating than Houston (+8.5 to +1.3).

The Rockets have struggled as road favorites this season (10-13 against the spread), and they are just two games over .500 in road games.

Charlotte has hit a different gear over the last few months, and it has a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense over its last 15 contests.

Even if the Hornets can’t win this matchup, I do think they’ll be able to hang around on Thursday.

Boston Celtics Moneyline (-205)

Steph Curry (knee) remains out of the lineup again on Thursday night, and I think that makes it a no-brainer to bet on Boston to win this game.

Golden State is five games under .500 this season against teams that are .500 or better, and I don’t see its offense keeping up with a Boston team that is No. 2 in the league in offensive rating with Curry and Jimmy Butler (out for the season) on the shelf. The Warriors are just 6-10 in the 16 games that Curry has missed in the 2025-26 campaign.

Meanwhile, the C’s are 10-7 against the spread as road favorites this season. Golden State has won just four of 11 games since Butler went down, and it lacks any kind of offensive punch to hang around with Boston.

The C’s, despite being without Jayson Tatum, have been an elite road team, going 17-10 straight up in the 2025-26 campaign. They should win as 5.5-point favorites on Thursday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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