Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kawhi Leonard, Lakers-Pistons, Jalen Williams)

Less than a month remains in the 2025-26 NBA regular season, and there are still a ton of playoff spots – and playoff seeds – up for grabs down the stretch of the campaign.

On Monday, 20 NBA teams take the floor as the basketball world turns its focus back to the pros after a four-day binge of March Madness action. The Sweet 16 doesn’t begin until Thursday, so the next three days are all about the NBA for men’s basketball fans.

Sunday’s five-game slate produced a 1-2 showing in Peter’s Points, and I’m looking to build on a strong season overall with four plays on March 23.

There are some great matchups on Monday, including a Los Angeles Lakers-Detroit Pistons battle as Luka Doncic looks to continue his MVP push late in the season.

I’m eyeing Kawhi Leonard and a pick for the Los Angeles Lakers-Detroit Pistons matchup in today’s Peter’s Points, so let’s dive into the odds and analysis for each bet to kick off this week!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 218-172 (+12.03 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1509-1409-27 (+45.19 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (-130) vs. Detroit Pistons
Kawhi Leonard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-106)
San Antonio Spurs-Orlando Magic Alternate Line Parlay (-151)
Jalen Williams OVER 14.5 Points (-112)

Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline (-130) vs. Detroit Pistons

The Lakers have won nine games in a row, and now they take on a short-handed Pistons team on Monday night.

Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung) is out for the next few weeks, and I think that opens the door for Luka Doncic and the Lakers to win outright on Monday.

Over their last 15 games, the Lakers are sixth in net rating (two spots ahead of the Pistons), 10th in defensive rating and second in offensive rating, riding a massive MVP surge from Doncic.

Now, the Pistons have to figure out how to score enough against one of the league’s best offenses without the engine to their team. Yes, Detroit beat the Washington Wizards and the Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors without Cunningham, but this is a massive step up in class.

L.A. has staked a claim on the No. 3 seed in the West, and with Doncic, Austin Reaves and LeBron James all expected to play, I think this number is a discount for the Lakers on Monday night.

Kawhi Leonard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers Made (-106)

This season, Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard is taking a career-high 6.9 3-pointers per game, and he’s shooting an impressive percentage (38.7 percent) with the increased usage.

That makes him an interesting prop target on Monday against a Milwaukee Bucks team that is 29th in the NBA in opponent 3-pointers made per game and 27th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Leonard has knocked down at least two shots from deep in each of his last six games, and he’s cleared this line in back-to-back games despite his ankle issue. The star forward is 9-for-15 from beyond the arc during this two-game stretch, making at least four 3-pointers in both games.

He should be able to get whatever he wants against a weak Bucks defense. Leonard and the Clippers need every win they can get to remain in a top eight spot in the West, so I wouldn’t be shocked if he looks to keep his hot shooting going on Monday.

San Antonio Spurs-Orlando Magic Alternate Line Parlay (-151)

I’m moving the lines in a few games that I like for a little two-team parlay on March 23.

San Antonio Spurs +3.5 vs. Miami Heat

The San Antonio Spurs are 4.5-point favorites in this game with the Miami Heat, but I’m moving the spread quite a bit to get them as underdogs with Devin Vassell and Stephon Castle on the injury report.

San Antonio has won five games in a row and remains one of the best teams in the NBA, ranking in the top five in the league in offensive rating, defensive rating and net rating.

Meanwhile, Miami has dropped four games in a row, falling to the No. 9 seed in the Eastern Conference.

The Spurs are the better team in this game, as the Heat have dropped outside of the top 10 in net rating after a strong start to the month of March.

Getting a few points with the Spurs is obviously a huge plus, but I wouldn’t mind San Antonio as a road favorite if Castle and Vassell play. The Spurs are 10-10-1 against the spread as road favorites, posting a +8.6 scoring margin in those games.

Even though Miami loves to push the pace on offense, I think the Spurs are up to the challenge with a top-five defense this season.

Orlando Magic -5.5 vs. Indiana Pacers

Orlando has struggled against the spread as a home favorite (11-15) this season, so I’m moving this line seven points against a tanking Indiana team.

The argument against the Pacers is simple. They’ve lost 16 games in a row and are just 5-31 overall on the road. As a road underdog, the Pacers are 12-21 against the spread with an average scoring margin of -12.2 points per game.

Not only that, but the Pacers are 1-14 without Pascal Siakam (questionable) in the lineup this season. Indy has the second-worst offensive rating and a -12.1 net rating on the road this season, and the Magic (losers of four in a row) desperately need this game in a loaded Eastern Conference playoff race.

I’ll fade a tanking Pacers team on Monday night.

Jalen Williams OVER 14.5 Points (-112)

Jalen Williams is playing in his first game in over five weeks after missing time with a hamstring injury, but I’m buying the Oklahoma City Thunder star at this number.

Williams is averaging 17.5 points on 14.0 shots per game this season, and he’s scored 15 or more points in 19 of his 26 games this season. When he originally returned from a hamstring issue for two games, Williams poured in 23 points in 24 minutes and 28 points in 19 minutes with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup before the All-Star break.

So, I don’t think it’s impossible for him to clear this line against a Philly team that is 16th in the league in defensive rating, even if he plays limited minutes on Monday.

Williams has taken at least 10 shots in 24 of his 26 games this season, giving him a pretty solid floor when it comes to this prop.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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