Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Kawhi Leonard, Nets-Mavs, Scottie Barnes)

Fresh off of a 4-1 day betting on the NBA on Sunday, I’m back with another edition of Peter’s Points on Monday, with a pair of player prop picks highlighting the slate.

Los Angeles Clippers star Kawhi Leonard is one of the players that I’m targeting, as he has a great matchup against the Charlotte Hornets as the Clippers look to build on an 8-2 stretch that has put them in the mix for a play-in tournament spot in the West.

Plus, there is a total bet that I love in the Dallas Mavericks-Brooklyn Nets matchup, as the Mavs have really struggled this season with Anthony Davis (hand) out of the lineup.

This season has been one of the best when it comes to my daily NBA picks, as I’m currently up 16.75 units and sitting at 40 picks over .500. Keeping this pace for an entire season won’t be easy, but I do love the three plays that I have for Jan. 12.

Here’s a full breakdown of each pick – and the latest odds – on Monday night.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 136-96 (+16.75 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1427-1333-27 (+49.90 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Kawhi Leonard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers (-116)
Brooklyn Nets-Dallas Mavericks UNDER 221.5 (-116)
Scottie Barnes OVER 17.5 Points (-125)

Kawhi Leonard OVER 2.5 3-Pointers (-116)

This season, Leonard has shot the ball well from beyond the arc, knocking down nearly 38 percent of his attempts while taking a career-high 7.1 3-pointers per game.

He's made at least three shots from deep in three games in a row and 15 of his 28 appearances in the 2025-26 season. Now, he takes on a Charlotte team that is allowing 13.2 opponent 3s per game while ranking 29th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage (37.6 percent).

Kawhi missed the first meeting between these teams, but the Clippers put up 131 points in that game and shot 19-for-43 from beyond the arc (44.2 percent).

I think Leonard is a great bet to hit three or more 3s, especially since his volume has been way up from deep this season.

Brooklyn Nets-Dallas Mavericks UNDER 221.5 (-116)

I absolutely love the UNDER in the Brooklyn-Dallas matchup on Monday, as the Mavericks are No. 10 in the league in defensive rating this season and the Nets are seventh in defensive rating in their last 15 games.

Brooklyn scored just 98 points on Sunday, and these teams rank 30th (Brooklyn) and 24th (Dallas) in points per game this season.

The Mavericks are just 4-15 when Anthony Davis (hand) doesn’t play, making them impossible to trust as a favorite in this matchup. Both of these teams have hit the UNDER at a high rate as well, with the Mavs hitting it in 23 of their 39 games while the Nets are 21-15 to the UNDER after Sunday’s loss.

Given how well the Nets have defended over the last month, I wouldn’t be shocked if this turns into a slug fest considering all the players that are sidelined for Dallas (Davis, Kyrie Irving, Dercik Lively II and likely PJ Washington) on Monday.

Scottie Barnes OVER 17.5 Points (-125)

Scottie Barnes dropped 31 points in an overtime win over the Philadelphia 76ers on Sunday, and he and the Toronto Raptors face them again on Monday night.

There’s a chance Barnes sits out this game (he was questionable heading into Sunday), but I think he’s a bargain at this price if he does play.

This season, the All-Star forward is averaging 19.4 points per game while shooting 50.5 percent from the field, and he’s scored 18 or more points in 22 of his 39 appearances. With Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett both missing yesterday’s win, there’s a chance Barnes could have a few more shots on Monday if both of them sit out again.

Getting a player of Barnes caliber at more than a point below his season average is a worthwhile play against a Philly defense that has given up 18, 16 and 31 points to him so far this season.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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