Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Luka Doncic, Spurs-Grizzlies, Cooper Flagg)

Sports Illustrated's Peter Dewey breaks down his favorite bets for the NBA action on Tuesday, Jan. 6.

Los Angeles Lakers guard Luka Doncic is a great prop target on Tuesday. / Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images

Monday ushered in quite a start to the week in Peter’s Points! 

A 5-for-5 night, including four player prop wins, pushed this season’s record to 35 picks over .500 (good for +13.68 units), and I’m looking to pick up right where I left off last night with a smaller slate of NBA action on Tuesday. 

A little 5-for-5 sweep? 🧹🧹

Pistons +2.5 ✅
Jalen Johnson O 9.5 REB ✅
Kon Knueppel O 15.5 PTS ✅
Tyrese Maxey O 27.5 PTS ✅
Ivica Zubac O 9.5 REB ✅

Let’s keep it rolling! @SI_Betting https://t.co/0LPN4kG70K

— Peter Dewey (@peterdewey2) January 6, 2026

Even with just six games on Jan. 6, there are four plays that I’m eyeing, including player props for Luka Doncic and Cooper Flagg. Doncic and the Los Angeles Lakers are road favorites in New Orleans while Flagg is looking to have a big game against a struggling Sacramento Kings team.

Plus, there is a side that I’m betting after crushing the New York Knicks-Detroit Pistons matchup on Monday.

Let’s dive into the odds and each breakdown for Tuesday’s NBA Best Bets! 

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

• 2025-26 season record: 127-92 (+13.68 units)
• 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
• OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1418-1329-27 (+46.84 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Darius Garland UNDER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-123)
• San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (-118) vs. Memphis Grizzlies
• Luka Doncic 7+ Rebounds (-153)
• Cooper Flagg OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-134)

Darius Garland UNDER 36.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-123)

Cleveland Cavaliers guard Darius Garland should have an expanded role on Tuesday night against the Indiana Pacers, as Donovan Mitchell (rest) has been ruled out for this game.

However, I’m not buying Garland in this points, rebounds and assists prop. 

Earlier this season, Garland played one game without Mitchell and dropped 35 points on the Chicago Bulls, but this is a much tougher matchup on the road against the Pacers – even though Indy has the worst record in the East.

Let me explain.

Indiana, despite all of its struggles, is still a solid defensive team, ranking sixth in the NBA in opponent assists per game and No. 1 in opponent 3s made per game. That should make things tougher on Garland, and it’s worth noting that the Pacers are in the middle of the pack in opposing point guard points per game (26.21) this season. 

Garland enters this matchup averaging 17.0 points, 2.6 rebounds and 6.9 assists per game while shooting 42.0 percent from the field and 35.0 percent from 3. In 21 games this season, he’s cleared 36.5 PRA just three times.

Even with Mitchell out, I think this number is a little too high against an Indiana team that has a plethora of pesky guard defenders. 

San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (-118) vs. Memphis Grizzlies

The San Antonio Spurs are hoping to get Victor Wembanyama (knee) back in the lineup on Tuesday night against Memphis, as he was a full participant in the team’s practice on Monday and traveled to Memphis for this game.

So, I’m running to grab the Spurs at -5.5 against a Grizzlies team that won’t have Zach Edey, Brandon Clarke, Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr., John Konchar and Cedric Coward on Tuesday. Plus, Ja Morant is listed as questionable after missing Sunday’s loss to the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Grizzlies have gone 13-3 against teams that are below .500 this season, but they are just 2-17 against teams that are .500 or better. The Spurs fall into the over .500 category, as they hold the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. 

Plus, Memphis is just 1-6 against the spread when set as a home underdog in the 2025-26 season.

If Wemby returns, this line may shift in favor of the Spurs, but I like them to win this game regardless on Tuesday. San Antonio ranks sixth in the league in net rating, and it’s gone 10-4 in the 14 games that Wembanyama has missed. 

Luka Doncic 7+ Rebounds (-153)

Luka Doncic has not been the same on the glass since the start of December, but I’m buying him on Tuesday against the New Orleans Pelicans. 

Doncic has seven and 12 boards in his two matchups with New Orleans this season, and he’s still averaging 8.1 rebounds on 12.2 rebound chances per game this season. 

New Orleans ranks just 24th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game, so I decided to move Doncic’s rebounds prop from 7.5 (where it was +114) to 7+, where it is -153. This season, the Lakers star has at least seven boards in 15 of his 26 games. 

He’s coming off a nine-rebound game against Memphis on Sunday, and I expect him to push his season average in this matchup. 

Cooper Flagg OVER 11.5 Rebounds and Assists (-134)

Dallas Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg is having a terrific first season, and he’s really come on as a playmaker since the start of December, averaging 5.1 assists per game.

While I don’t love his assists only prop (set at 5.5), I do think there is some value in Flagg’s combined rebounds and assists prop.

He’s averaging over 11.0 rebounds and assists since Dec. 1, and over his last 11 games those numbers sit at 6.6 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game.

Now, he takes on a Sacramento Kings team that ranks in the bottom five in the league in both opponent assists and opponent rebounds per night. On top of that, Flagg has cleared 11.5 rebounds and assists in eight of his last 11 outings.

I think he’s in line for a big game across the board against one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. 

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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