Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Spurs vs. Thunder Game 7, SGA, De’Aaron Fox)

It was always going to come down to a Game 7.

The two top teams in the NBA all season long – the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder – are going the distance in the Western Conference Finals.

San Antonio picked up a blowout win on Thursday night at home in Game 6, extending the series to another meeting in OKC on Saturday night. In NBA history, teams that won Game 5 in a best-of-seven series that was tied 2-2 went on to win the series 82% of the time (198-44 series record), which still favors the Thunder.

Oddsmakers have OKC set as a 3.5-point favorite at home after it was a 6.5-point favorite in Games 1 and 2 and a 5.5-point favorite in Game 5.

I’ll be honest – and we’re always transparent with our records here at SI Betting – this series has crushed me. I have been on the wrong side several times, and multiple Spurs blowout wins in Games 4 and 6 and have tanked my player prop picks as well.

So, I’m looking to bounce back on Saturday with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line for both of these teams.

Here’s a full breakdown of my best bets for Spur vs. Thunder Game 7, and hopefully I’ll turn this cold streak around!

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 315-283 (-9.94 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1606-1519-27 (+23.21 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

De’Aaron Fox UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-152)
San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 212.5 (-110)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 30.5 Points (-111)

De’Aaron Fox UNDER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-152)

Spurs guard De’Aaron Fox is shooting just 29.9 percent from 3-point range in the NBA Playoffs, and he’s 2-for-15 from beyond the arc in this series.

Fox hasn’t cleared this line in any game in the Western Conference Finals, and he only has five games this postseason (out of 15) with two or more made 3-pointers.

During the regular season, Fox had two games against OKC where he failed to make a 3-pointer, though he cleared this line in three of five games. Still, with the star guard nursing an ankle injury in this series, he hasn’t had the the same lift and impact on the offensive end.

I expect him to fall short of this number, especially since he’s taken four or fewer 3-pointers in each of the last three games.

San Antonio Spurs-Oklahoma City Thunder UNDER 212.5 (-110)

If you’re looking to bet on the game, I think the UNDER is the play in Game 7.

Historically, Game 7s are a little more low-scoring and slower paced, and two of the last three games (Games 4 and 6) fell short of this total. Game 1 would have also fallen short of this number had it not gone to double overtime.

These are two of the best defenses in the NBA, ranking No. 1 (OKC) and No. 3 (San Antonio) in defensive rating during the regular season. In the playoffs, the Spurs are even better, posting a defensive rating just over 104.0.

We’ve seen both sides sell out to stop the superstars – Wembanyama and Gilgeous-Alexander – in this series, and the Thunder’s offense has looked disjointed in two of the last three games.

When set as road underdogs in the 2025-26 season, San Antonio has hit the UNDER in 11 of 18 games.

With Jalen Williams (10 minutes in Game 6) ruled out for Game 7, I’m not sold on the OKC offense dominating the game. It took an amazing shooting performance in Game 5 for the Thunder to score over 120 points, and I think both teams will lean on their defenses in the half court on Saturday.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander UNDER 30.5 Points (-111)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has just two 30-point games in this series, and he needed 16 free throws in Game 5 to clear this line.

So, I’m taking the UNDER for the two-time MVP in Game 7, especially since the Spurs have sent different coverages at home all series to keep him from scoring at a high level.

In this matchup, SGA is shooting just 37.9 percent from the field and 26.1 percent from 3-point range. Overall in the playoffs, the star guard is shooting 45.5 percent from the field, 10 percent worse than he did in the regular season.

Teams have really forced other players on the Thunder to beat them, and SGA only has 30 or more points in three of his last 10 playoff games.

If this ends up being a low-scoring Game 7, I think this points total is a touch too high against the No. 2 defense in the playoffs.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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