Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Stephon Castle, Pistons, Timberwolves, Raptors)

Sunday’s NBA action features eight exciting games, starting with a few afternoon tips at 3 p.m. EST.

While most of the sports world is focused on who will be in the Super Bowl after today’s AFC and NFC Championship Games, there’s still plenty of NBA to bet on!

I am targeting four of the eight games on the slate, including a moneyline parlay with two of the early matchups, to kick off what should be a big week in the Association as the trade deadline approaches.

In addition to that, I’m going back to the well with a bet that cashed for us on Thursday – the 150th win of the 2025-26 season.

Let’s dive into the odds and my breakdown for each of these picks on Jan. 25.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 150-111 (+13.34 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1441-1348-27 (+46.50 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Detroit Pistons-Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline Parlay (-151)
Stephon Castle OVER 7.5 Assists (-143)
Toronto Raptors +11.5 (-115) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Detroit Pistons-Minnesota Timberwolves Moneyline Parlay (-151)

Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are massive favorites at home against the Sacramento Kings on Sunday, and I’m buying them to add to an impressive home record in the 2025-26 season.

Cade Cunningham (probable for this game) and the Pistons are 17-5 straight up and 11-11 against the spread at home this season, posting an average scoring margin of +8.9 points in those games.

While the Kings had looked to have turned a corner earlier this month, they’ve now dropped four games in a row and are a dreadful 8-13 against the spread as road underdogs this season. In fact, the Kings have a net rating of -12.6 on the road – the second-worst mark in the NBA.

That’s led to a 3-18 road record overall, and the Kings are just 8-26 against teams that are over .500. I can’t get behind Sacramento to keep this game close, especially if Zach LaVine (questionable) ends up sitting out.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves have lost four games in a row, and they’re now holding on to a play-in tournament spot in the Western Conference.

However, it appears they are going all out to win the front end of a back-to-back against Golden State, as Terrence Shannon Jr. is the only regular rotation player that will miss this game.

The Warriors, on the other hand, have listed Steph Curry as questionable along with Al Horford and De’Anthony Melton while Jonathan Kuminga is out. With Jimmy Butler done for the season, the Warriors have very little room for error offensively, and they are a complete stay away in any instance where Curry doesn’t play.

Now, Steph could suit up in this matchup, but I still would lean with the Timberwolves, who are seventh in the NBA in net rating and rank in the top 10 in the league in both offensive and defensive rating.

Since Butler went down, Golden State has been blown out by Toronto and lost by eight against Dallas. The Wolves are better than both of those teams, and they should improve to 16-7 at home this season.

Stephon Castle OVER 7.5 Assists (-143)

San Antonio Spurs guard Stephon Castle picked up eight assists in his last game against the Utah Jazz, and now he takes on a New Orleans Pelicans squad that is 29th in the NBA in opponent assists per game.

Castle has eight or more dimes in six games in a row and eight games this month, pushing his season average to 7.1 assists per game. In three meetings with the Pelicans, Castle has six, 13 and five dimes.

The Spurs guard is becoming the primary playmaker in this offense, averaging 12.7 potential assists per game and 14.8 potential assists over this six-game streak with eight or more dimes.

He should torch a New Orleans defense that has been one of the worst in the NBA (27th in defensive rating) all season.

Toronto Raptors +11.5 (-115) vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder are coming off a shocking loss to the Indiana Pacers (who have just three road wins all season) at home on Friday night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 47 points in that game, but it wasn’t enough for an OKC team that remains without Isaiah Hartenstein, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell on Sunday against the Toronto Raptors.

Toronto has a few key players – Immanuel Quickley, Collin Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter – listed as questionable for this game, but I think the Raptors are undervalued as double-digit dogs in this matchup.

This season, the Raptors are 9-4 against the spread as road underdogs, and they rank 12th in the NBA in net rating. While OKC has been dominant at home (20-3), it is just 12-11 against the spread in those games.

With four key rotation players out on Sunday, I’m not comfortable laying this many points with the Thunder, especially with Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram and RJ Barrett all set to play for Toronto.

The Raptors may lose this game, but they can keep things within 11 points on Sunday.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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