Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Stephon Castle, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)

Two wild games in Oklahoma City kicked off an exciting Western Conference Finals matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, and now things shift to San Antonio on Friday night for Game 3.

The Spurs are small favorites at home in this matchup, but a bunch of injury concerns on both sides are the story of Game 3.

De’Aaron Fox (ankle) has not played in this series while Dylan Harper (leg) went down in Game 2 and did not return. The Thunder have injury issues of their own, as Jalen Williams (hamstring) aggravated the injury that cost him six games already this postseason, playing less than eight minutes in Wednesday’s Game 2.

With these teams already wearing on each other, how should we bet on Game 3?

I went 1-for-2 in my plays for Game 2 of this series, hitting a prop for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The UNDER was my other bet, but a 62-point first quarter quickly ended hopes of a sweep.

Now, I’m eyeing a pair of player props in Game 3, as SGA continues to make a big offensive impact even though the Spurs have sent multiple bodies at him in this series. Can the two-time league MVP build on a strong showing from OKC’s Game 2 win?

He’s one of two players to target in the prop market for Friday night’s Western Conference Finals showdown.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 308-262 (-1.61 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1599-1498-27 (+31.54 units)

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Stephon Castle OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-111)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ Assists (-156)

Stephon Castle OVER 12.5 Rebounds and Assists (-111)

Stephon Castle has done it all for the Spurs this postseason, and he could be forced to play an even bigger role in Game 3 if Harper and Fox (both questionable) are limited or out for this matchup.

Castle is averaging 5.0 rebounds and 6.6 assists per game in the playoffs, but he’s been even better in this series, putting up 17 rebounds and assists in Game 1 and 13 rebounds and assists in Game 2.

The star guard is going to have the ball in his hands a ton as a playmaker, and he’s averaging nearly 12 potential assists per game in the postseason.

Castle averaged 12.7 rebounds and assists per game in the regular season, and the Spurs clearly need him to step up if they’re going to win Game 3. I’ll trust him to clear this line for the third game in a row on Friday night.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ Assists (-156)

SGA is known for being arguably the best scorer in the NBA, but his passing has been a difference-maker for the Thunder in the 2026 postseason.

The two-time league MVP is averaging 7.8 assists per game in the playoffs, way up from his average in the regular season (6.6). He’s picked up at least eight dimes in seven of his 10 playoff games, recording 12 assists in Game 1 of this series and nine in Game 2.

With Williams aggravating his hamstring injury, SGA is going to see even more defensive pressure in Game 3. He’s handled it well so far in this series as a playmaker, turning the ball over just five times.

In the playoffs overall, SGA is averaging 14.6 potential assists per game, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to this prop. If the Spurs are going to continue to sell out to keep him from scoring, I trust the Thunder role players to knock down shots around.

Shai has hit this prop in four consecutive games against a very similar scheme (the Los Angeles Lakers double-teamed and trapped him quite a bit in the second round), and he’s remained a willing passer throughout the postseason.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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